Padres vs Dodgers Home Run Prop Predictions - 9/22/2026
Updated September 22, 2026
Padres vs Dodgers Full Game Pricing
Updated September 22, 2026
The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers open a three-game series Tuesday night, with first pitch set for 10:10 p.m. ET at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium. Michael King (12-9, 3.03 ERA) gets the start for San Diego, while the Dodgers are expected to go with a bullpen game to open their final home series of the regular season.
The total is set at 8.5 runs, with the Over trading around 48¢ at Polymarket, so there could be plenty of scoring opportunities on Tuesday night. Let’s break down my favorite Padres vs Dodgers home run prop prediction, which is Mookie Betts to go deep.
Betts Has Had Success Against King
Betts is 4-for-18 with two home runs, three walks and just one strikeout against King in the regular season. He also took him deep in Game 3 of the 2024 NLDS, giving him three homers in 21 career at-bats against King if you include the postseason.
He's Crushing the Ball Right Now
Betts is hitting .373/.468/.746 with six home runs and a 1.215 OPS in September. He also homered twice Friday against San Francisco before going 4-for-4 with three doubles the next day.
King Has Been Vulnerable to the Long Ball Lately
King has allowed seven home runs over his last nine starts, which is where teams have done a lot of their damage against him lately. His sinker could be the pitch to watch, with opponents slugging .470 against it with a .498 xSLG and 45.0% hard-hit rate.
Recommended Prediction:
Mookie Betts to Hit a HR
Current Market Price:
15¢
Model HR Probability:
18.7%
Market-Implied Probability:
15.0%
Model Edge:
+3.7%
Buy Up To:
17¢
Model Trade Confidence:
71/100
ATS Expert Verdict:
“Mookie Betts has been red-hot this month, with six home runs in 67 at-bats — basically one every 11 at-bats. He went 0-for-4 against the Giants on Sunday, but I like him to bounce back against a pitcher he’s already taken deep multiple times. Betts is my favorite home run target on Tuesday night.”
There’s a lot to like about Betts’ chances to go deep Tuesday night, from Michael King’s home run numbers to Betts’ recent form and the matchup itself. For more on the full game, check out our Padres vs Dodgers prediction, where our model is projecting a 5-3 win for Los Angeles.
Michael King has been really good for most of this season. He enters Tuesday with a 3.03 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 181 innings, and he’s been even better lately, posting a 2.21 ERA in August and a 2.37 ERA through three September starts.
But if there’s one area where King has been vulnerable, it’s the long ball. He’s allowed 20 home runs in 31 starts, already the most he’s allowed in a single season of his career.
And that number could be even higher. King has allowed 23.3 expected home runs (xHR) this season, according to Baseball Savant, more than three above his actual total. He’s been tough to consistently string hits together against, but the Dodgers may not need to if Betts can capitalize on just one mistake.
Betts hasn’t just been hot lately — he’s been one of the best players in baseball this month. According to FanGraphs, his 227 wRC+ and 1.6 WAR both rank second in MLB in September, trailing only Elly De La Cruz. He’s also struck out in just 8.9% of his plate appearances this month.
And Betts isn’t doing it alone. The Dodgers are averaging 5.79 runs per game with 28 home runs in September, ranking second in MLB in both categories behind only the Brewers. They’ve also posted a .366 OBP, .452 slugging percentage and .819 OPS as a team this month.
The former AL MVP is clearly seeing the ball well right now, and he’s doing it in the middle of a Dodgers lineup that has been crushing the ball all month long.
King’s sinker could be the pitch to watch when Betts steps to the plate. He throws it more than any other pitch at 27.9%, but opponents have slugged .470 against it with a .498 expected slugging percentage (xSLG) and 45.0% hard-hit rate this season.
That lines up well with one of Betts’ strengths. According to Baseball Savant, Betts is hitting .305 against sinkers this season with a .514 xSLG and 49.4% hard-hit rate. He’s also whiffed on just 4.9% of the sinkers he’s seen, so it’s a pitch he’s consistently been able to square up.
King obviously won’t live on the sinker against Betts, but since it’s his most-used pitch, there should be opportunities for Betts to get one he can drive.
Betts isn’t the only L.A. bat I like in the Padres vs Dodgers home run prop market. Max Muncy is priced at 20¢ to go deep on Polymarket, while our model gives him a 23.1% chance. That gives us a 3.1% edge at the current price.
The matchup with a right-handed starter also works in his favor. Muncy has hit 22 of his 29 home runs against right-handed pitching this season, along with a .497 slugging percentage and .850 OPS in those matchups.
The underlying power numbers are there, too. Muncy has a 13.1% barrel rate and 46.0% hard-hit rate this season, making him another Dodgers bat worth a look if you don’t want to go with Betts.
For more picks and analysis across Tuesday’s slate, check out our daily MLB predictions.
