Nick Pivetta MLB projections and prop bets for Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox on Sep 27, 2024
Nick Pivetta Player Prop Bet: Earned Runs
Earned Runs Prop Bet Odds:
- Earned Runs 2.5 over: 120
- Earned Runs 2.5 under: -160
Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop Bet
It may be best to expect positive regression for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Connor Wong (the Red Sox's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as a weak pitch framer.
Fenway Park profiles as the #3 park in Major League Baseball for BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums.
Nick Pivetta’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2254 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2315 rpm).
Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Prop Bet
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nick Pivetta in the 75th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching skills.
The league's 2nd-tallest average fence height can be found at Fenway Park.
Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (38% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #21 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.
Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics across the board, and Nick Pivetta will hold that advantage in today's game.
Nick Pivetta was in good form in his previous outing and allowed 0 ER.
Projection For Nick Pivetta Earned Runs Prop Bet
Nick Pivetta is projected to have 2.4 Earned Runs in this weeks game.
Nick Pivetta Player Prop Bet: Strikeouts
Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:
- Strikeouts 6.5 over: 120
- Strikeouts 6.5 under: -152
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop Bet
When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Nick Pivetta in the 94th percentile among all SPs in the league.
Fenway Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to less offense.
Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics across the board, and Nick Pivetta will hold that advantage in today's game.
Nick Pivetta's slider rate has jumped by 12.5% from last season to this one (17.4% to 29.9%) .
Nick Pivetta has compiled a 27.9% Strikeout% this year, placing in the 89th percentile.
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Prop Bet
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Connor Wong (the Red Sox's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as a weak pitch framer.
Nick Pivetta’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2254 rpm) has been significantly worse than than his seasonal rate (2315 rpm).
With a 0.52 difference between Nick Pivetta's 10.75 K/9 and his 10.23 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year when it comes to strikeouts and ought to perform worse in future games.
Projection For Nick Pivetta Strikeouts Prop Bet
Nick Pivetta is projected to have 5.9 Strikeouts in this weeks game.
