Rays vs Yankees Home Run Prop Predictions - 9/23/2026
Updated September 23, 2026
Updated September 23, 2026
The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees continue their four-game series Wednesday night, with first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. Ian Seymour (9-7, 4.38 ERA) gets the start for Tampa Bay against Gerrit Cole (9-9, 3.63 ERA) for New York.
The Rays officially clinched the AL East with their 6-1 win Tuesday night, while the Yankees are now locked into the AL’s top Wild Card spot. There may not be much left to decide in the standings, but we can still find some value in the player prop markets.
For Wednesday night, my favorite Rays vs Yankees home run prop prediction is Ben Rice to go deep against Seymour and Tampa Bay.
Rice Has the Power Profile
Rice has been crushing the ball all season, with a 13.9% barrel rate, 48.0% hard-hit rate and 91.9 mph average exit velocity. That’s translated to 39 home runs in 641 plate appearances, or about one every 16.4 trips to the plate. The power is real, and the underlying numbers back it up.
Seymour Has Been Giving Up Home Runs
Ian Seymour has allowed 25 home runs in 127.1 innings this season, which comes out to about 1.77 HR/9. Even more interesting, lefties have taken him deep 11 times in just 42.1 innings. So while the lefty-lefty matchup might not look ideal at first, I’m not too worried about it here.
Rice Is Seeing the Ball Well Right Now
Rice has been one of New York’s hottest hitters in September, batting .318/.439/.545 with a .984 OPS through 16 games. He’s hit four home runs during that stretch and has nearly as many walks (14) as strikeouts (16). He’s seeing the ball well right now, and the power hasn’t gone anywhere.
Recommended Prediction:
Ben Rice to Hit a HR
Current Market Price:
16¢
Model HR Probability:
19.7%
Market-Implied Probability:
16.0%
Model Edge:
+3.7%
Buy Up To:
18¢
Model Trade Confidence:
70/100
ATS Expert Verdict:
“With Aaron Judge out, this is a good opportunity for Ben Rice to step up and provide some of the power New York is missing in the lineup. I like his chances against a pitcher who has struggled to keep the ball in the park, and the ATS Quantitative Model gives Rice a 19.7% chance to homer compared to a 16¢ market price. That gives us a 3.7% edge, which is enough for me to take a shot on Rice to go deep Wednesday night.”
Polymarket currently has the Yankees priced as a 57¢ favorite (57%) over the Rays at 44¢ (44%) on Wednesday night, likely reflecting New York’s slight starting-pitching edge with Gerrit Cole and home-field advantage.
The total is sitting just over 6.5 runs at 50¢, so the market isn’t necessarily expecting a high-scoring game. That doesn’t mean there can’t still be some value in the home run market, though, especially with several big-time power hitters in this matchup.
Our model also leans toward New York, projecting a 4-2 Yankees win and giving the Yankees a 63% chance to win the first five innings. You can check out our full Rays vs Yankees prediction for September 23 for a deeper breakdown of Wednesday night’s matchup.
There are plenty of big-time power hitters to choose from in this Rays vs Yankees matchup, but Ben Rice is the guy I keep coming back to. The numbers back it up, too, with several things working in his favor on Wednesday night.
Rice has been one of the Yankees’ best power hitters all season, already piling up 39 home runs and 95 RBI while hitting .260 with a .525 slugging percentage. The underlying numbers back it up, too, with Rice posting a 13.9% barrel rate, 48.0% hard-hit rate and .505 expected slugging percentage (xSLG).
There could be a little extra motivation here, too. Rice is just one home run away from reaching 40 for the first time in his career, and he’ll have a chance to get there Wednesday night in front of the home crowd at Yankee Stadium.
Rice has only faced Ian Seymour six times in his career, but he’s made the most of those opportunities. He’s 3-for-6 with two home runs and four RBI against the Rays left-hander, good for a 1.500 SLG and 2.000 OPS in the matchup.
Six plate appearances obviously isn’t enough to draw any major conclusions, but two home runs in six at-bats is still worth noting when we’re looking specifically at a home run prop. Rice has already shown he can do damage against Seymour, and he’ll get another shot at him Wednesday night.
Yankee Stadium is another reason to like Rice here. He’s hit 20 of his 39 home runs at home this season, compared to 19 on the road, despite having 60 fewer at-bats at Yankee Stadium. He’s also slugging .526 at home with an .890 OPS.
The dimensions also fit Rice well. Most of his home runs this season have been hit to right or right-center field, and Yankee Stadium’s famous short porch is just 314 feet down the right-field line. That gives the left-handed Rice a pretty favorable setup whenever he gets the ball in the air to his pull side.
Rice struggled through August, hitting just .184 with a .641 OPS, but he’s turned things around in a big way this month. He’s hitting .318/.439/.545 with a .984 OPS and four home runs in September, while his 178 wRC+ ranks 17th among all MLB hitters this month.
That’s a pretty encouraging turnaround for Rice with the playoffs right around the corner. He’s starting to look like himself again at the plate, and Wednesday gives him another chance to keep it going before the Yankees turn their attention to October.
For more picks across Wednesday’s slate, check out our daily MLB predictions for every game on the schedule.
