Jordan Montgomery projections, stats and prop bet odds for Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers on Sep 22, 2024
Jordan Montgomery Player Prop Bet: Strikeouts
Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:
- Strikeouts 4.5 over: 100
- Strikeouts 4.5 under: -130
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop Bet
The #2 park in Major League Baseball for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.
Jordan Montgomery has utilized his curveball 8.4% more often this year (30.6%) than he did last season (22.2%).
Jordan Montgomery has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 6.15 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.06 — a 0.91 K/9 discrepancy.
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Prop Bet
As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jordan Montgomery in the 21st percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Montgomery to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (11th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to more offense.
This game is expected to have the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games today (88%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jordan Montgomery in today's matchup.
Projection For Today's Jordan Montgomery Strikeouts Prop Bet
Jordan Montgomery is projected to have 4 Strikeouts in todays game.
Jordan Montgomery Player Prop Bet: Earned Runs
Earned Runs Prop Bet Odds:
- Earned Runs 2.5 over: -125
- Earned Runs 2.5 under: -105
Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop Bet
American Family Field grades out as the #7 ballpark in Major League Baseball for walks, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
In MLB, American Family Field's centerfield dimensions are the 8th-shallowest.
In the league, American Family Field has the 5th-lowest average fence height.
This game is expected to have the 3rd-most humid conditions of all games today (88%); there is a small yet noteworthy link with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
Playing on the road generally lessens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jordan Montgomery in today's matchup.
Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Prop Bet
It may be best to expect negative regression for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.
Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Jordan Montgomery has utilized his curveball 8.4% more often this year (30.6%) than he did last season (22.2%).
Jordan Montgomery has had some very poor luck with his ERA this year; his 5.83 rate is significantly inflated relative to his 4.62 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).
Jordan Montgomery has notched a .328 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the unluckiest mound aces in baseball on balls in play with better performance likely coming.
Projection For Today's Jordan Montgomery Earned Runs Prop Bet
Jordan Montgomery is projected to have 2.8 Earned Runs in todays game.
