Braves vs Astros Home Run Prop Predictions - 9/19/2026
Updated September 18, 2026
Braves vs Astros Full Game Pricing
Updated September 18, 2026
The Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros continue their weekend series on Saturday, with first pitch set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Daikin Park. Grant Holmes (9-5, 3.49 ERA) gets the start for Atlanta against Hayden Wesneski (5-2, 3.70 ERA).
Polymarket has the total set at 8.5 runs, with the Over trading at 52¢, and there’s plenty of power on both sides. Let’s break down my favorite Braves vs Astros home run prop prediction, which is Matt Olson to go deep, and where the ATS Quantitative Model sees value.
Olson Crushes Right-Handed Pitching
Wesneski is a righty, and Olson has 24 home runs in 391 plate appearances against RHP this season. He’s also slugging .512 with an .842 OPS against them, averaging roughly one homer every 14.3 at-bats.
The Power Is Still There
According to Baseball Savant, Olson’s 14.6% barrel rate and 51.4% hard-hit rate both sit around the 93rd percentile among MLB hitters, while his average exit velocity is 92.4 mph. He may only be hitting .193 in September, but he’s still hitting the ball extremely hard.
Wesneski’s Fastball Plays Into Olson’s Strength
Wesneski throws his four-seamer around 28% of the time to lefties, and Olson has done most of his damage against the fastball family. Twenty-four of his 39 home runs have come against fastballs, with a 16.3% barrel rate against them.
Recommended Prediction:
Matt Olson to Hit a HR
Current Market Price:
21¢
Model Win Probability:
25.3%
Market-Implied Probability:
21.0%
Model Edge:
+4.3%
Buy Up To:
23¢
Model Trade Confidence:
64/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I like Matt Olson to leave the yard on Saturday night. Wesneski has done a great job keeping the ball in the park this season, but Olson is exactly the type of hitter I’m willing to back against him. He leads Atlanta with 39 home runs, has gone deep twice in the last eight days and is starting to show some signs of breaking out of his September slump. I think this is a good spot for No. 40.”
So, why Olson on Saturday? Let’s take a closer look at the matchup and why I like his chances of going deep.
Olson has always done his best work against righties. He owns a career 139 wRC+ and .522 SLG against right-handed pitching, compared to a 118 wRC+ and .477 SLG against lefties. That’s carried over to this season, where he has a 125 wRC+ against RHP.
And it may not just be Wesneski. Houston has several righties it could turn to out of the bullpen, including Bryan Abreu, Enyel De Los Santos, Tatsuya Imai, AJ Blubaugh and Ronel Blanco. That could keep the NL MVP candidate facing the side he’s historically done the most damage against for most of the night.
Houston’s bullpen also ranks in the bottom half of MLB with a 4.12 ERA, according to Inside the Pen, so the matchup could remain favorable even after Wesneski leaves the game.
Wesneski has done a great job limiting home runs this season, allowing just four across 48.2 innings. But we’ve started to see a little more power against him lately. After going four straight starts without allowing a homer, he gave one up to Trea Turner on Sept. 8 and another to Richie Palacios in his last start against Tampa Bay.
There’s also an interesting trend for Olson here. Three of the four home runs Wesneski has allowed have come against left-handed hitters, with Jung Hoo Lee and Drew Gilbert also taking him deep earlier this season. It’s a small sample, but I like the matchup with one of baseball’s top left-handed power bats coming to the plate Saturday.
More than half of Wesneski’s pitches this season have been four-seamers, sinkers or cutters. That lines up well for Olson, who is slugging .495 against four-seamers, .563 against sinkers and .647 against cutters this season, according to Baseball Savant.
Wesneski’s fastball velocity is also worth watching. His four-seamer has averaged 93.4 mph this season but dipped to 92.0 mph in his last start against Tampa Bay. If that carries over to Saturday, it could give Olson an even better chance to get a fastball he can drive.
Olson’s September numbers aren’t pretty, but there are some signs he may be starting to come out of his slump. Entering Friday, he’s batting just .193 this month, but he homered on Sept. 11 and again on Sept. 13 after going more than two weeks without one.
The results haven't completely turned around yet, but the power is starting to show up again. Olson had two hits on Sept. 15 with exit velocities of 109.5 and 101.9 mph, with the latter traveling 399 feet despite staying in the park. He followed that with another hit on Sept. 16, so I’m not letting the ugly September average scare me away from the home run prop.
For more picks across Saturday’s slate, check out our MLB predictions for the latest model projections and expert analysis from around baseball.
