Brewers vs Padres Game 4 Prediction & Preview: Can Padres Force Game 5?
Updated October 7, 2026
Updated October 7, 2026
Milwaukee had a chance to close this series Tuesday night, but San Diego finally broke through with a 4-3 win in Game 3 and cut the Brewers’ NLDS lead to 2-1. All three games in the series have finished with 7 combined runs or fewer, with final scores of 3-2, 4-3 and 4-3. Game 4 returns to Petco Park, where San Diego will again be playing to keep its season alive. The starting pitching matchup is still partly unsettled: MLB currently lists Walker Buehler for the Padres, while Milwaukee has yet to make its starter official. Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan, and Chad Patrick are among Milwaukee’s available options.
Our Model Favors the Under
Polymarket has the Under 7.5 trading around 53¢, which translates to an implied probability near 53%. My projection is materially higher at 56.5%. That gap is large enough to justify an Under position, even with San Diego’s bullpen having taken on more of a workload than ideal after Game 3. The key is that 7.5 gives us a full run of protection above the scores produced in each game so far. A repeat of Tuesday's 4-3 result cashes the Under, and this series has yet to produce an eighth run in any game.
Maximum Position Price
There are reasons not to price the Under too aggressively. Buehler finished the regular season with a 4.63 ERA, and Milwaukee may use several arms rather than one conventional starter. San Diego also used Michael King for 40 pitches over two scoreless innings Tuesday after he threw 72 pitches in Game 2. Mason Miller was unavailable on the paternity list, while Adrian Morejon was dealing with a shoulder issue. Those factors increase late-inning uncertainty. Even after accounting for them, I still land below the market total, with a projected combined score in the high-6-run range. At 53¢, the Under is playable. I would stay interested up to 55¢, but the value becomes much thinner beyond that point.
Recommended Position:
Under 7.5
Current Price:
53¢
Model Probability:
56.5%
Market Probability:
53%
Model Edge:
3.5%
Entry Threshold:
55¢
Model Confidence:
64/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“The current price is giving too much weight to the uncertainty around the starters and not enough to the low-scoring nature of this series, Petco Park’s pitcher-friendlynature, and the way both clubs have handled high-leverage innings on the mound.”
The Brewers remain one win from advancing in this Padres vs Brewers series after taking the first two games in Milwaukee, 3-2 and 4-3. Their Game 3 loss was frustrating because they generated 11 hits and repeatedly put runners on base, yet left 11 men stranded. William Contreras was the best hitter in the lineup, reaching four times with three hits, a walk, and his second home run of the series. Christian Yelich also drove in a run, ending a 19-game postseason stretch without an RBI.
That production is encouraging for Milwaukee, but it also shows why the Under still has appeal. The Brewers collected 11 hits and scored only three runs. San Diego’s defense made several important plays, and the Padres found ways to escape traffic without allowing the game to open up.
The Padres have scored 2, 3, and 4 runs in the first three games. Jake Cronenworth supplied the biggest swing in Game 3 with a go-ahead solo home run in the fifth inning, but San Diego still finished with only six hits and has produced just two extra-base hits in the series.
San Diego does not need an explosive night to force Game 5. A 3-2 or 4-3 win works just as well, and Craig Stammen has managed the pitching staff with that urgency. The offense has been able to scratch out enough runs, but it has not consistently created long rallies against Milwaukee.
Walker Buehler is expected to be San Diego’s Game 4 starter. He finished the regular season 9-6 with a 4.63 ERA and 131 strikeouts. His 2026 numbers are not dominant, but he brings extensive postseason experience and owns a 3.04 career playoff ERA. He is also 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA in four career starts against Milwaukee.
Buehler does not have to work deep into the game for the Under to be attractive. If he can get through four or five innings without a crooked number, San Diego can begin turning the game over to its best available relief options.
Milwaukee had not officially named its Game 4 starter as of early Wednesday. Pat Murphy indicated that Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan and Chad Patrick were all possibilities. Gasser is the best traditional starting option after making 20 regular-season starts, while a Patrick opening assignment would point to a bullpen-heavy approach.
That uncertainty is the biggest risk to the Under. It also does not automatically mean Milwaukee will give up a large total. Murphy can use his staff by inning and batter type rather than leaving one pitcher exposed for too long. The Brewers finished the regular season with a 3.52 team ERA, giving them enough depth to piece together a competitive run-prevention plan.
San Diego’s bullpen usage is more complicated. King recorded the final six outs Tuesday despite having started Game 2 just two days earlier. Miller missed Game 3 because of the paternity list, and Morejon was unavailable with a shoulder issue. Gavin Sheets also missed Game 3 because of neck stiffness.
If Miller returns, the Under case improves because San Diego gets one of its best late-inning arms back. If he remains away and Morejon is again unavailable, Stammen may need to lean more heavily on pitchers who worked Tuesday. That is the biggest reason I would not chase the Under much past 55¢.
This series has established a clear scoring ceiling through three games. Milwaukee has allowed 9 runs in the series, while San Diego has allowed 10. Every game has been decided by one run, and neither side has shown an ability to separate offensively for long stretches.
Petco Park has also played as a run-suppressing venue in 2026, and the playoff setting gives both managers every reason to react early if a pitcher loses command. The uncertain Milwaukee starter and San Diego’s relief workload create risk, but the number is still favorable at 7.5. My projection makes Under 7.5 the best position at the current Polymarket price, with 55¢ as the highest entry point I would accept.
