Dodgers vs Braves Game 4 Prediction & Preview: LA's Pitching Depth a Major Factor
Updated October 7, 2026
Updated October 7, 2026
The Los Angeles Dodgers head into Game 4 against the Atlanta Braves with a 2-1 series lead and an opportunity to finish the NLDS on Wednesday. Los Angeles took Game 3 by a 3-1 score behind another dominant postseason start from Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who worked 7 innings and struck out 10. Atlanta has now scored just 7 runs through the first 3 games of the series, while the Dodgers have scored 10. With Tyler Glasnow scheduled for Los Angeles and Tyler Mahle set to start for Atlanta, the pitching matchup will be a key factor in deciding whether or not this series concludes with this game.
Model vs. Market
At 52¢, Polymarket is asking traders to pay an implied 52% probability for Under 7.5. My projection places the true probability closer to 56%, creating a 4% gap between the market and the model. That is a substantial difference for a total, especially considering the first 3 games of this series have finished with 8, 5, and 4 runs. Those games have produced an average of just 5.67 combined runs.
Price Sensitivity
The position also has room to remain attractive if the price rises. With a 56% model probability, I would play Under 7.5 up to approximately 54¢. At that point, the model would still hold a 2% advantage over the implied probability. At the current 52¢ price, buyers are getting considerably more value. The market appears to be giving too much weight to the reputation and season-long potential of these offenses rather than what has happened during the series and the quality of Wednesday’s starting pitching.
Recommended Position:
Under 7.5
Current Price:
52¢
Model Probability:
56%
Market Probability:
52%
Model Edge:
4%
Entry Threshold:
54¢
Model Confidence:
63/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“The 52¢ price implies that Under 7.5 is close to a coin flip. Recent scoring, the quality of both starting pitchers, and the available bullpen arms suggest the probability should be higher.”
Glasnow is expected to start Game 4 for Los Angeles after finishing the regular season with a 5-2 record, 3.53 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 98 strikeouts in 74 innings. His ability to generate swings and misses gives the Dodgers another pitcher capable of controlling a Braves lineup that has struggled to make consistent contact.
Atlanta struck out 12 times in Game 3, including 10 strikeouts against Yamamoto. Glasnow presents a different look, but the problem is similar for the Braves. He can finish plate appearances without putting the ball in play and has allowed relatively few hits when healthy.
Glasnow’s workload is worth watching going into Dodgers vs Braves Game 4 because injuries limited him to 13 regular-season starts. However, Los Angeles does not necessarily need him to work deep into the game. Yamamoto completed 7 innings Tuesday, allowing manager Dave Roberts to avoid using much of his bullpen.
Atlanta counters with Mahle, whose recent results have been better than his 3.99 regular-season ERA might suggest. Mahle delivered 7 innings of one-run baseball against Philadelphia in his previous postseason start, allowing 6 hits while striking out 6 and walking only one. He also finished the regular season well, allowing one run across 6 innings against Houston on September 18 after giving up one run in 7 innings against Philadelphia on September 12.
Mahle goes up against a Dodgers lineup that has yet to produce a major offensive breakout in this series. Mahle does not need another 7-inning gem for the Under to have value. Five or 6 quality innings could be enough to keep the combined score in a favorable range heading into the late innings.
The Braves had several opportunities to change Game 3 but could not capitalize. Atlanta finished 0-for-6 with runners in scoring position and produced one run on 5 hits.
Ronald Acuña Jr. went 0-for-3 with a walk, while Austin Riley also went hitless. Atlanta did not hit a home run after scoring 6 combined runs over the opening 2 games.
Acuña's health is also worth monitoring. He has been dealing with soreness in his knee and was moved from the outfield to designated hitter for Game 3. He remained in the lineup, so there is no reason to assume he will miss Game 4, but any physical limitation involving Atlanta's most dynamic offensive player will be important in an elimination game.
Los Angeles has taken 2 of the first 3 games despite receiving subpar production from several important hitters. Shohei Ohtani went 0-for-2 with a walk in Game 3 after being moved down to fifth in the batting order. He had been dealing with right biceps and left knee issues late in the regular season. Will Smith struck out 3 times Tuesday, while Teoscar Hernández went hitless in 4 at-bats.
Freddie Freeman and Enrique Hernández provided the biggest swings with solo home runs, but Los Angeles finished 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position and stranded 9 runners.
Yamamoto's lengthy Game 3 outing was valuable beyond the 3-1 victory. Los Angeles needed only Tanner Scott and Edwin Díaz to cover the final 2 innings, leaving most of the bullpen available Wednesday.
Atlanta used 4 relievers after Chris Sale completed 5 innings, but each reliever threw only one inning. Dylan Dodd, Dylan Lee, Brent Suter, and Raisel Iglesias combined to keep Los Angeles scoreless over the final 4 frames.
That bullpen situation reduces some of the usual risk attached to an Under in a postseason elimination game. Neither manager should be forced to leave a struggling pitcher on the mound simply because other options are unavailable.
The first 3 games have averaged 5.67 runs, and Game 4 features 2 starters who have shown they can limit damage. Glasnow's strikeout rate is particularly useful against an Atlanta lineup coming off a 12-strikeout performance, while Mahle enters after an excellent postseason start.
There are always risks with an Under. Both lineups have enough power to change the scoring environment quickly, and Atlanta could become more aggressive with its season on the line. Still, the price is what makes this position stand out.
At 52¢, Polymarket is pricing Under 7.5 as though it has only a 52% chance of cashing. My projection is 56%, producing a 4% edge. Even allowing for reasonable uncertainty in the projection, that is a wide enough gap to justify a position.
