Updated August 26, 2026
The Houston Astros and New York Yankees are back at it Wednesday night at Yankee Stadium, with first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. ET. Rookie Elmer Rodríguez (0-2, 4.76 ERA) gets the start for New York against Peter Lambert (8-7, 3.68 ERA).
Houston took Game 1 of the series 9-7 on Tuesday night, overcoming three separate Yankees leads along the way. Can New York even things up in Game 2? Let's preview Wednesday's matchup, make our Astros vs Yankees prediction, and break down some of the biggest storylines heading into the game.
We're going with the Yankees to win Wednesday night, with New York currently priced around 55¢ on Polymarket.
Elmer Rodríguez has been a little shaky through his first four starts, with the Yankees going just 1-3 when he's on the mound. But he's pitched well in the minors this year, going 8-3 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, and he won't have to do it all himself. The Yankees have MLB's best bullpen with a 3.04 ERA, according to Inside The Pen, and key arms like Paul Blackburn, David Bednar, Ryan Yarbrough, and Tim Hill should all be available if needed.
New York's offense has also started to heat up, scoring 15 runs over its last two games. The Yankees put up seven in Tuesday's loss, and I think they'll give Peter Lambert another tough test tonight.
If you're not quite sold on the Yankees' bats, the Under 8.5 total runs is another option at around 48¢ on Polymarket. That's also the prediction from our ATS.io Quantitative Model, which projects a 5-3 Yankees win. Check out our full Astros vs Yankees prediction for more data and analysis on Wednesday's matchup.
The Yankees are one of the most banged-up teams in baseball as we head toward the postseason. Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are both on the 60-day IL, while Max Fried, Ryan Weathers, Ryan McMahon, Kervin Castro, and Clarke Schmidt are also sidelined.
Still, New York has managed to keep winning. The Yankees are 38-33 since Judge went down on May 31, keeping them firmly in the playoff picture despite missing their best player for nearly three months.
At 74-57, the Yankees sit 3.5 games behind Tampa Bay in the AL East and currently hold the AL's top Wild Card spot. The red-hot Red Sox are right behind them, though, just 1.5 games back.
The Yankees would probably be happy just to reach October healthier than they are now, but there's still plenty to play for. Catching the Rays and winning the AL East would mean a first-round bye and home-field advantage through the first two rounds — a pretty big incentive to keep pushing even with so many key players out.
Peter Lambert is having a career year with the Astros after a rocky stint with the Rockies from 2019-2024 and spending last season in Japan with the Tokyo Yakult Swallows. Through 122.1 innings, he has a career-best 3.68 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 120 strikeouts. His eight wins this season also match his total from all of his years with Colorado combined.
However, Lambert is coming off easily his worst start of the year. He gave up nine earned runs on eight hits and two walks in just 3.2 innings against the Angels, a rough outing after pitching well for most of the season.
There are some reasons to think Lambert can bounce back in the Bronx, though. He's actually been better on the road this year, with a 2.98 ERA away from Houston compared to a 4.05 ERA at home. He's also had a lot of success against left-handed hitters, holding them to a .167 average, .244 slugging percentage, and .532 OPS.
That could come in handy against a Yankees lineup that's pretty lefty-heavy right now due to all the injuries. Still, New York's bats have started to heat up recently, so this won't be an easy bounce-back spot for Lambert.
Despite taking Game 1 against the Yankees yesterday, the Astros haven't been playing their best baseball lately. Houston entered this series having lost three straight series, all against AL West opponents, including dropping two of three to both the Angels and Athletics.
Those losses look even worse considering the Angels and A's are both 52-81, with only the Rockies owning a worse record in the league. Houston now sits at just 66-66, though that's surprisingly still good enough for first place in the AL West.
The Astros will certainly need to pick things up down the stretch with the Rangers and Mariners within striking distance. After making the playoffs every year from 2017-2024, including seven straight ALCS appearances and two World Series titles, Houston is now in danger of missing the postseason for the second straight year — something it hasn't done since the 2013 and 2014 seasons.
For more picks and analysis from around the league, check out our daily MLB picks and predictions throughout the 2026 season.
