UFC
Costa comes in off a mixed but strong stretch that includes a setback against higher-level opposition, while Gordon is coming off a damaging loss after earlier showing he can still score a sharp finish. Gordon remains tough, experienced, and willing to fight hard in every phase, but Costa has looked more varied and more reliable in recent outings. With the available form data, Costa’s recent run against solid UFC opposition is the stronger side of the ledger.
No previous head-to-head matchup exists.
Melquizael Costa is the projected winner, with a decision the most likely outcome. The edge is built on Costa’s better recent form, his ability to adjust across phases, and the belief that the market is pricing him a bit too aggressively for a fighter who still has multiple routes to bank rounds. Gordon’s experience and toughness should keep the fight competitive, but Costa’s steadier recent résumé makes him the side with value.
