SERIE A
Across seven Serie A matches, Frosinone are 4-1-2 and sit sixth, while Lecce are 3-0-4 and sit 12th. The gap between results and underlying numbers is part of the story. Frosinone have 11.84 xG and 16.35 xGA, which is 1.69 and 2.33 per match, so they’ve outscored their chance quality and survived some defensive leakage. Lecce own the same 11.84 xG, but their 17.40 xGA is even heavier, at 2.49 per match, which explains why their record looks lighter than the attacking output. Shot volume points to a lively but not runaway game. Frosinone average 5.6 shots on target per match, compared with 4.7 for Lecce, so the home side has the cleaner chance creation profile. Frosinone have also been a little sharper in front of goal, with 13 goals from 11.84 xG, while Lecce have 9 goals from the same xG total. That makes the projected 2-1 home win fit the full-time market better than a wide-open scoreline.
Our Frosinone vs Lecce prediction is Frosinone 2-1 Lecce. We like Under 3.5 goals at any price of -170 or better, with the edge built on regression from both teams’ elevated xGA and a projected total that stays below four.
