NFL
Dallas enters with the better overall profile, sitting above Arizona in scoring offense, passing production, and yards per play, while also holding the stronger point differential. The Cowboys are averaging 353.6 total yards per game and 27.0 points per game, with 259.3 passing yards per game driving most of that output. Arizona has been less consistent, producing 313.9 total yards per game and 20.3 points per game, and its defense has allowed 29.7 points and 354.3 yards per game. The Cardinals have also been weaker in yards-per-play prevention, while Dallas has been more efficient on offense. That sets up a script where Dallas should move the ball well enough to keep scoring pressure on Arizona, and the Cardinals should be able to do enough offensively to keep the total in play.
Dallas has the stronger offensive profile and Arizona has the weaker defensive profile, which is why the game projects into the high 50s rather than settling lower. The Cowboys should control more of the scoring flow, but Arizona has enough passing production to contribute and keep the pace moving. A final score of Dallas 31, Arizona 25 gives Dallas the win while clearing the total, which fits the current matchup data better than a slower game script.
