Updated October 28, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket and may change based on trading activity leading up to tipoff.
*Note: You can also back SGA to record 6+ assists for around 62¢ on Polymarket, but I prefer the higher-upside 8+ assists prediction at 34¢.
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The Oklahoma City Thunder travel to Dallas to face the Mavericks on Wednesday, October 28. Tipoff is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at American Airlines Center, with the game airing on ESPN.
Oklahoma City is off to a 4-0 start, most recently beating Phoenix 125-114 on Monday. However, injuries are already piling up for the preseason NBA title favorites. Meanwhile, Dallas (2-2) is coming off a 113-109 win over Miami and will look to hand the Thunder their first loss of the season.
With both teams dealing with injuries, I've identified three NBA player props involving Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Hartenstein, and P.J. Washington that I like at their current Polymarket prices.
Below, I'll break down the stats, trends, and matchups supporting each prediction.
Oklahoma City's Backcourt Injuries
With Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso all sidelined and Ajay Mitchell questionable, Gilgeous-Alexander could take on a larger playmaking role against Dallas. Williams averaged 5.5 assists last season, so Oklahoma City will need to make up for his absence. That could mean more opportunities for SGA to create scoring chances for his teammates.
Potential for Positive Assist Regression
SGA is averaging just 3.75 assists through four games, but he's created far more scoring opportunities than that number suggests. He's generated 55 potential assists (13.75 per game), with teammates converting only 27.3% of those chances. He also averaged 6.6 assists last season, so his numbers could improve if more of those passes turn into made shots.
A Favorable Matchup Against Dallas
The Mavericks allowed 28.1 assists per game last season, including 9.1 to opposing point guards. They've also given up 29.8 assists per game through four contests this year. With center Dereck Lively II sidelined, SGA could find more opportunities to drive into the paint and set up open teammates.
Recommended Prediction:
SGA 8+ AST (Yes)
Current Market Price:
34¢
Model Over Probability:
39.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
34.0%
Model Edge:
+5.1%
Buy Up To:
38¢
Model Confidence:
71/100
Consistent Production When Holmgren Is Out
With Chet Holmgren sidelined, Hartenstein should have more opportunities on the glass against Dallas. He averaged 12.6 rebounds in five games without Holmgren last season, reaching double figures four times (80%). The trend goes back even further, as he averaged 11.6 rebounds across 37 games without Holmgren in 2024-25.
Elite Rebounding Rates
Hartenstein posted a 21.4% total rebounding rate last season, including a 27.4% defensive rebounding rate and 15.0% offensive rebounding rate. He also averaged roughly 14 rebounds per 36 minutes, meaning he wouldn't necessarily need a huge workload to reach 10.
Solid Matchup Against Dallas
The Mavericks allowed 46.8 rebounds per game last season, including approximately 13.7 to opposing centers. They'll also be without Dereck Lively II, removing one of their better interior rebounders. That could give Hartenstein more opportunities on both ends of the floor, especially on the offensive glass, where he averaged 4.0 rebounds per game without Holmgren last season.
Recommended Prediction:
Hartenstein 10+ REB (Yes)
Current Market Price:
53¢
Model Over Probability:
57.6%
Market-Implied Probability:
53.0%
Model Edge:
+4.6%
Buy Up To:
56¢
Model Confidence:
69/100
Oklahoma City's Defensive Injuries
The Thunder will be without several key defenders, including Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso. Holmgren's absence is especially important, as it removes one of their best rim protectors. With Oklahoma City also missing perimeter defenders, Washington could find more room to attack the basket and get open looks from three.
Consistent Minutes and Shot Volume
Washington is averaging 35.0 minutes per game, playing at least 31 in all four contests. He's also taking 11.8 shots, including 6.0 threes, and attempting 3.8 free throws per game. That gives him several ways to reach 15 points, especially if Kyrie Irving, who's questionable, sits out.
A History of Scoring Against Oklahoma City
Washington has averaged 17.4 points across 14 career games against the Thunder, shooting 48.3% from the field and 36.5% from three. He's also averaged 12.6 shots in those matchups, showing he's had no trouble finding scoring opportunities against this opponent.
Recommended Prediction:
Washington 15+ PTS (Yes)
Current Market Price:
50¢
Model Over Probability:
54.3%
Market-Implied Probability:
50.0%
Model Edge:
+4.3%
Buy Up To:
53¢
Model Confidence:
67/100
Despite missing several key pieces of their rotation, the Thunder are still clear favorites on Wednesday night. Oklahoma City is trading at 67¢ to win on Polymarket, compared to 34¢ for Dallas, giving the 2025 NBA champions a roughly 67% implied chance of starting 5-0.
The spread is set at Thunder -5.5, with OKC trading at 53¢ to cover, while the total sits at 228.5 points (50¢ for the over). Our Thunder vs Mavericks prediction projects a 116-109 Oklahoma City win, suggesting a competitive game with enough scoring opportunities on both sides.
That's the kind of game script I'm looking for with my player props. If Dallas can keep things close, Gilgeous-Alexander, Hartenstein, and Washington should have a better chance of seeing their usual minutes rather than losing playing time to a blowout.
For more predictions beyond tonight's matchup, check out our best NBA bets today for expert picks throughout the rest of the season.
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