MLB
Toronto enters with the better overall run prevention profile, even after a rough recent stretch. The Blue Jays have a stronger batting average and on-base rate than Cincinnati, and their pitching staff has been much better over the full season. Cincinnati has hit more home runs, but its offense has been less efficient overall and its pitching numbers are weaker. Toronto’s home record is also better than Cincinnati’s away record, which gives the Blue Jays a small but useful situational boost in a game that could swing on bullpen performance late.
Max Scherzer gets the ball for Toronto. His season-long value is supported by a team that has limited runs at a far better rate than Cincinnati, and the Blue Jays’ bullpen also backs him with a lower ERA and WHIP. Toronto’s staff has held opponents to a weaker batting line and has converted more games into quality prevention outcomes over the season, which fits Scherzer’s role as the starter the Blue Jays want in a must-win type spot. Brandon Williamson starts for Cincinnati. He draws a tougher assignment because the Reds’ pitching staff has allowed more runs, more home runs, and a higher on-base rate against than Toronto’s staff. Cincinnati’s bullpen has also been less effective than Toronto’s, so Williamson is less protected if he exits early. That puts more pressure on him to keep Toronto off the board in the first several innings, and that is a difficult ask against a home team with the stronger pitching base.
Toronto is the better side in this game because its pitching staff grades out far ahead of Cincinnati’s, and that matters more than the Reds’ small edge in power hitting. Scherzer gives the Blue Jays the more trustworthy starter, Toronto’s bullpen is stronger, and the home team also owns the better season-long run prevention numbers. Cincinnati can score enough to keep this competitive, but the Blue Jays have the cleaner path to controlling the game and finishing with a win by a couple of runs, with a projected score of Toronto 5, Cincinnati 3.
