USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers Prediction - November 14, 2026

Prediction

• ●Recommended Position: Indiana Hoosiers
• ●Model Win Probability: 55.0%
• ●Market Implied Probability: 50.5%
• ●Model Edge: 4.5%
• ●Entry Threshold: Better than current consensus price
• ●Model Confidence: 74/100

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Indiana Hoosiers 34, USC Trojans 26
• ●Projected Total: 60.0

Why This Position Stands Out

Indiana brings the cleaner overall profile into this game. The Hoosiers are producing 32.44 points per game while allowing only 12.44, and their defense has been far more efficient than USC’s, giving up 259.22 yards per game and 4.08 yards per play allowed. That gap matters because USC has still been productive on offense, but it has not matched Indiana’s defensive consistency, especially against the run and on standard downs.

Matchup Overview

Both teams enter with identical scoring averages, but they get there in different ways. Indiana is more balanced, with 233.3 passing yards and 186.2 rushing yards per game, while USC leans more on the pass at 294.4 passing yards and 129.3 rushing yards per game. The difference is on defense: Indiana has held opponents to 12.44 points per game, while USC has allowed 24.22. Indiana also owns the better yards-per-play numbers on both sides of the ball, which supports a home-side edge in a game that should feature enough scoring for the favorite to separate.