Troy Trojans vs South Alabama Jaguars Prediction - November 14, 2026

Matchup Overview

South Alabama enters with the better offensive output and a wider scoring margin, putting up 33.25 points per game while allowing 32.75. Troy has been steadier defensively, but its offense has lagged at 23.0 points per game, which makes it harder to keep pace if this turns into a higher-volume scoring game. South Alabama’s ground game has been a major strength at 213.1 rushing yards per game, and Troy’s defense has been more vulnerable through the air than against the run. Troy’s recent profile is also less appealing in the betting market, with a 3-5-0 ATS record and just 1-7-0 to the over, while South Alabama has played closer to even against the number and has been more balanced on totals.

Market Trends

• ●South Alabama Jaguars are 4-4-0 against the spread and 5-3-0 to the over this season.
• ●Troy Trojans are 3-5-0 against the spread and 1-7-0 to the over this season.

Prediction Summary

South Alabama should control enough of the matchup at home to earn the win, with the stronger offense and better yards-per-play profile separating it from Troy. The Trojans can keep the game competitive with a respectable defense, but their lower scoring output makes it tougher to match South Alabama if the Jaguars reach the low 30s. My projection is South Alabama 31, Troy 24, which supports a South Alabama moneyline position with a modest edge and a total that lands near the market number.