COLLEGE FOOTBALL

South Carolina enters with the stronger recent form in the numbers that matter most: 36.88 points per game, 464.1 yards per game, and 6.5 yards per play, plus an offense that runs for 217.5 yards per game. Arkansas has been more limited offensively at 19.63 points and 336.1 yards per game, and its defense has allowed 27.62 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. That contrast gives South Carolina the clearer ceiling on offense and a better chance to separate if Arkansas struggles to finish drives. The Razorbacks have been more effective through the air than on the ground, but South Carolina’s defense has held teams to 25.25 points per game and 5.16 yards per play, which makes it harder for Arkansas to trade scores over four quarters.
South Carolina has the better blend of offensive output, defensive efficiency, and scoring margin, and that makes the Gamecocks the side with the clearest value. Arkansas can move the ball some through the air, but its overall efficiency and points allowed numbers are too soft to trust against a team averaging nearly 37 points per game. The projected final score is South Carolina 31, Arkansas 23, which supports a South Carolina cover and a game that lands in the low-to-mid 50s.