Purdue Boilermakers vs Iowa Hawkeyes Prediction - November 14, 2026

Prediction

• ●Recommended Position: Under 47.5
• ●Model Win Probability: 57.0%
• ●Market Implied Probability: 52.38%
• ●Model Edge: 4.62%
• ●Entry Threshold: -133

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: Iowa Hawkeyes 27, Purdue Boilermakers 17
• ●Projected Total: 44.0

Why This Position Stands Out

The under stands out because the matchup sets up a clear clash between Iowa’s defense and Purdue’s passing-heavy but leaky profile. Iowa is allowing just 12.5 points per game, 275.5 yards per game, and 4.43 yards per play allowed, while Purdue is giving up 32.12 points per game, 418.62 yards per game, and 6.63 yards per play allowed. That creates room for Iowa to control the game without needing a track meet, especially if the Hawkeyes lean on their 174.3 rushing yards per game and keep Purdue’s offense on the sideline.

Matchup Overview

Iowa enters with a balanced offense at 28.25 points per game and 383.6 yards per game, driven by 209.4 passing yards and 174.3 rushing yards per game. Purdue has been more explosive through the air at 263.4 passing yards per game and 29.5 points per game, but its defense has been a major liability, allowing 243.62 passing yards and 175.0 rushing yards per game. Iowa’s defensive numbers are far stronger across every major category, and that gap supports a lower-scoring game if the Hawkeyes can dictate tempo and force Purdue into longer, less efficient drives.