Arizona State Sun Devils vs UCF Knights Prediction - November 14, 2026

Prediction

• ●Recommended Position: UCF Knights -3.5
• ●Model Win Probability: 55.0%
• ●Market Implied Probability: 51.2%
• ●Model Edge: 3.8%
• ●Entry Threshold: -105
• ●Model Confidence: 63/100

Model Projection

• ●Projected Score: UCF Knights 28, Arizona State Sun Devils 24
• ●Projected Total: 52.0

Why This Position Stands Out

UCF has the cleaner profile on both sides of the ball and the market has mostly settled on the same side of the spread, which supports the idea that the current number is close to a fair baseline rather than a thin outlier. The Knights average slightly more points per game than Arizona State, allow fewer points, and grade better in passing defense, which matters in a game that projects to be competitive but not one-sided. Their home setting also matters because UCF has been the stronger side in ATS results this season, while Arizona State has been only average against the number. The mispricing case comes from the gap between UCF’s scoring prevention and Arizona State’s defensive leakage. Arizona State has allowed 29.5 points per game and 350.0 yards per game, while UCF has allowed 25.25 points and 375.88 yards, with the Knights’ offense producing a modest edge in overall scoring efficiency. The matchup sets up as a one-score game, but UCF’s balance and the home field should be enough to make the Knights the more likely side to cover.