COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Creighton finished last season at 16-18 overall and 9-11 in conference play, with a 75.2 points-per-game offense, 44.8% field-goal shooting, 34.1% from three, and 76.4% at the foul line. The Bluejays allowed 75.2 points per game and carried a 116.68 offensive rating and 103.28 defensive rating, which points to a team that can score but has not consistently controlled games. UMKC’s available team data shows 71.8 points per game, 42.3% shooting from the field, 30.9% from three, 71.3% at the line, and 31.8 rebounds per game. The Roos were also at 97.8 offensively and 117.9 defensively, which is not a strong baseline, but the gap is not so wide that an upset is impossible in a single-game setting if Creighton underperforms.
Creighton has the better statistical profile overall, but the moneyline market is pricing the Bluejays as an overwhelming favorite, which leaves little room for value on the home side. The model sees a small upset lane for UMKC if Creighton’s efficiency stalls and the game stays close into the late stages. Final projection: UMKC Kangaroos 74, Creighton Bluejays 72.
