Premier League Gameweek 10: What You Need to Know & Best Trade
Updated November 6, 2026
Updated November 6, 2026
Spurs have three straight wins and Brighton sit near the top on the league’s best goal difference. Both records look stronger than the numbers behind them.
Gameweek 10 tests a few of these stories, with Liverpool visiting a Palace side that hasn’t scored in three league games, and two makeshift defenses meeting at Old Trafford.
Saturday, November 7, 7:30am ET
Tottenham arrive at Elland Road on three straight league wins and two clean sheets. Don’t be fooled by the run. Almost 30% of their season xG came in one game, against a Palace side that went down to 10 men after 13 minutes. Take out the 3.47 xG Spurs created that day and they average about 1.0 xG per match, despite having more of the ball than anyone except City.
Their top scorer is a center-back. Jan Paul van Hecke has two league goals, and both goals against Palace were headers. Spurs have won 71 corners, the most in the league, and set pieces look like their best route through a deep Leeds back five.
Leeds aren’t much better going forward. Four of their nine league goals came in one 4-1 win over Newcastle, and they’re winless in five since. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has four of the nine, but he’s also missed five big chances, and no teammate has more than one league goal. James Trafford has prevented 3.0 goals in the Leeds goal, which helps explain why they’ve stayed in games.
Spurs are still without Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert, Sávio and Mykhaylo Mudryk, although James Maddison is fit and Rodrigo Bentancur is back from suspension. Leeds have doubts over Gabriel Gudmundsson and James Justin in their back five.
Polymarket has this one almost level: Leeds 34¢ (+194), the draw 29¢ (+245), Spurs 38¢ (+163). As I said in my Leeds vs Tottenham preview, I expect a low-scoring game. Under 2.5 goals at 52¢ (-108) is the way I’d play it.
Sunday, November 8, 9am ET
Liverpool have lost two in a row. Arsenal won at Anfield with 0.6 xG, then Fenerbahçe scored twice in six minutes in Istanbul on Wednesday. Selhurst Park looks like the right place to stop the slide.
Palace are 18th and haven’t scored in three league games. They allow 2.73 xG and 17.4 shots per match, and their only home league win came against a Forest side that created 4.6 xG.
Jean-Philippe Mateta is suspended after their appeal was rejected, and no Palace player has more than two league goals. Their top scorer is wing-back Tyrick Mitchell.
Liverpool’s problem has been finishing. They’ve scored 11 goals from 16.89 xG, and Alexander Isak has six of them. Florian Wirtz is still waiting for his first league goal despite 2.38 xG, and Palace concede more goal involvements to attacking midfielders than anyone in the league.
Andoni Iraola kept Wirtz, Isak and Cody Gakpo on the bench for the first 66 minutes in Istanbul, so his front line should be fresh.
The ATS Quantitative Model projects a 2-0 Liverpool win, and I’m backing Liverpool in my Crystal Palace vs Liverpool preview. They’re 62¢ (-163) on Polymarket and -170 at Fanatics and DraftKings.
Sunday, November 8, 9am ET
Brighton won at the Etihad and in Getafe within six days, and they come home with the best attack in the Premier League. They’ve scored 24 goals from 18.56 xG, with Pascal Groß and Maxim De Cuyper supplying seven assists between them.
The defense is the bigger question. Brighton have conceded seven league goals from 15.39 xGA, less than half what their chances against suggest. They haven’t conceded from a set piece despite allowing 4.8 xG from them, and City outcreated them 2.5 to 1.2 last weekend.
That gives Brentford an opening. Keith Andrews’ side create 1.78 xG per match and have scored 16 goals from 16.04 xG, so their finishing isn’t flattering them. They go long and wide, though, and that runs into Brighton’s best defender. Luka Vušković wins 74.6% of his aerial duels, and Igor Thiago wins 40.6% of his.
Brighton are still without Kaoru Mitoma, Evan Ferguson and Stefanos Tzimas, and Thursday night’s trip to Spain leaves them three days to recover. Brentford are missing Fábio Carvalho, Rico Henry and Antoni Milambo.
Brighton are 52¢ (-108) on Polymarket and -105 at DraftKings. My Brighton vs Brentford preview backs a Brighton win, and the ATS Quantitative Model leans the same way. Expect Brentford to get their chances, though.
Sunday, November 8, 11:30am ET
United haven’t won a league game since beating Ipswich 5-2 in August, and they haven’t kept a league clean sheet all season. Their 16.95 xG looks respectable until you notice that 5.68 of it came in that Ipswich game. In the seven league matches since, they’ve averaged 1.35 xG and scored five goals.
Villa are unbeaten in five league games, but they’ve allowed 1.98 xG per match, and their back four is in pieces. Matty Cash is suspended, Aaron Wan-Bissaka is injured, and Ian Maatsen is Unai Emery’s only fit senior full-back, so Victor Lindelöf is likely to fill in at right-back.
United have problems of their own at the back. Lisandro Martínez is suspended after his red card at Chelsea, and Luke Shaw and Patrick Dorgu are both out. Villa will fancy their set pieces. Half of their 10 league goals have come from dead balls, and United concede more goal involvements to center-backs than anyone in the league.
Nicolas Jackson has five of Villa’s 10 goals and should find space in behind. Bruno Fernandes’ delivery gives United a route to goal of their own.
That’s why I’m backing both teams to score in my Manchester United vs Aston Villa preview. The ATS Quantitative Model projects a 2-1 United win. BTTS Yes is 64¢ (-178) on Polymarket, a better price than DraftKings at -195.
