Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: Preview, Lineups & Analysis

Alexander Isak vs Chris Richards

Isak is the one Liverpool player finishing at or above his chances. He has six league goals from 4.75 xG, more than half of his team's total, and averages 4.1 touches in the box per 90.

Richards has been Palace's busiest defender. He averages 6.6 interceptions and 9.5 recoveries per 90 and wins 63.3% of his defensive duels. The problem is the system around him: Palace concede one goal involvement per match to centre-forwards, the most in the league.

Edge: Isak. Richards will win plenty of the ball, but Palace give strikers too many chances for one defender to cover.

Florian Wirtz vs Adam Wharton

Wirtz has created 18 chances and 1.85 xA, but he's still waiting for his first league goal despite 2.38 xG. He's the player most likely to find space between Palace's lines.

That space is Wharton's job to close. He averages 9.0 recoveries and 3.1 interceptions per 90, and he's also Palace's main route forward, with 73 passes into the final third. Palace concede 0.88 goal involvements per match to attacking midfielders, the most in the league.

Edge: Wirtz. Wharton is good enough to slow him down, but not on his own, and not after 77 minutes on Thursday.

Cody Gakpo vs Tyrick Mitchell

Palace concede 0.63 goal involvements per match to right wingers, the most in the league, and Gakpo has three assists and 3.2 successful dribbles per 90.

Mitchell is an unusual opponent. He's Palace's top scorer with two league goals, he set up Daichi Kamada's equaliser on Thursday, and he averages 5.0 interceptions per 90. The more he attacks, the more room Gakpo has behind him.

Edge: Gakpo. Mitchell is one of Palace's few attacking outlets, and that makes his side of the pitch the easiest to exploit.

Can Palace's low block hold Liverpool?

Palace sit deep and concede possession. Their PPDA of 16.38 shows how little they press, and they average 41.5% possession. xG Stat tags them as a low-block, counter-attacking side.

It hasn't kept opponents out. Palace allow 17.4 shots and 2.73 xG per match, and they've conceded 21 goals, 16 of them from open play. Their only home league win came against Forest, and Palace gave up 4.6 xG in that game.

Liverpool average 15.1 shots and 1.88 xG per match. Even in the Arsenal defeat they won the xG battle 1.6 to 0.6.

My view: Palace's block bends too easily. Liverpool should get the volume of chances they've been missing in recent weeks.

Where will Palace's goals come from?

Palace have scored nine Premier League goals, and no player has more than two. Their top scorer is a wing-back, and they haven't scored in their last three league games.

Mateta's absence matters less than it looks, because he's scored none from 2.79 xG in his 174 minutes. Strand Larsen has one goal from 1.48 xG. Set pieces haven't helped either: Palace have scored two from 3.6 xG.

Liverpool have a weakness to aim at. They've conceded eight open-play goals from 6.9 xG, and Fenerbahce's winner on Wednesday was a Vedat Muriqi header.

Liverpool also concede 0.67 goal involvements per match to attacking midfielders, the third-most in the league, which puts McNeil and Yéremy Pino in the game.

My view: Palace need a set piece or a mistake. Liverpool's recent errors make that possible, but Palace's attack hasn't earned much trust.

Can Liverpool fix their finishing?

Liverpool have scored 11 goals from 16.89 xG. Isak has six from 4.75, so the rest of the squad has five goals from roughly 12 xG.

Set pieces are the clearest example. Liverpool have a set-piece threat rating of 68 out of 100, but they've scored once from 4.4 xG. Palace concede 27% of their xG from dead balls, so the chances should be there again.

Wirtz is the player most due a goal. Going goalless from 2.38 xG screams 'regression opportunity', and Palace give more away to attacking midfielders than anyone.

My view: A gap that big between goals and xG usually closes. Palace are the right opponent for that to happen.

Liverpool should dominate the ball and the chances against a dysfunctional Palace side, with Wirtz and Gakpo working the spaces the hosts leave and Isak finishing what they create. Palace's 2.73 xGA/90 shows that they are easy pickings at the back.

The case against is Liverpool's own defending. They've conceded open-play goals above their xG, they threw away a lead on Wednesday, and xG Stat tags Palace as fast starters.

Even so, a Palace side with nine goals in nine games and no league win in three is unlikely to trouble Liverpool for long.

My preference is a Liverpool win, and the ATS Quantitative Model projects a 2-0 away win.