Brighton vs Brentford Preview: Preview, Lineups & Analysis

Igor Thiago vs Luka Vušković

Thiago is Brentford's focal point. He's contested 96 aerial duels, 9.7 per 90, and he does most of the hold-up work for a side that averages only 46% possession. The finishing hasn't matched the chances. He has two goals from 4.03 xG, and his shots on target have been worth just 1.54 xGOT.

Vušković is the wrong opponent for that game. He's won 74.6% of his aerial duels and averages 4.8 clearances and 5.4 interceptions per 90, and his xG Stat rating of 7.9 is the second-highest at his position. Thiago wins 40.6% of his aerial duels.

Edge: Vušković. If Thiago can't win the first ball, Brentford's direct approach loses its main outlet.

Pascal Groß vs Mamadou Sangaré

Groß runs Brighton's attack. He's created 21 chances, leads the squad with four assists from 2.24 xA, and takes their corners, free kicks and penalties.

Sangaré is the player most likely to be in his way. He averages 10.2 recoveries and 4.9 interceptions per 90, roughly double Groß's defensive output, and he wins 56.5% of his defensive duels.

Edge: Groß, if he gets time on the ball. Sangaré's numbers say he'll make that difficult, especially in transition.

Maxim De Cuyper vs Michael Kayode

Brighton lean left, and De Cuyper is the reason. He's created 14 chances with three assists from 2.2 xA, and he delivers 2.5 crosses per 90. He also set up Yasin Ayari's winner at the Etihad.

Kayode will be the player defending him. He wins 56.3% of his aerial duels but has created only five chances himself, and Brighton concede 0.25 goal involvements per match to right-backs, fourth-most in the league, so he has a reason to push forward.

Edge: De Cuyper. Kayode's best contribution may come from staying home, which would limit one of Brentford's few wide outlets.

Is Brighton's defence as good as its record?

Brighton have conceded seven league goals, but their 15.39 xGA works out at 1.71 per match. Six of those seven came from open play, against 10.6 xG, and they haven't conceded from a set piece despite allowing 4.8 xG from them.

The win at Manchester City showed both sides of that. Brighton won 1-0, but City created 2.5 xG to Brighton's 1.2. Their 3-0 win over Arsenal came with 1.8 xG against.

Brentford create enough to punish that. They average 1.78 xG and 12.7 shots per match, and they've scored 16 goals from 16.04 xG, so their finishing hasn't relied on luck.

My view: Brighton's goals-against column flatters them. Add a midweek trip to Getafe, and Brentford should get chances.

Can Brentford play through Brighton's press?

Brighton press high and hard. xG Stat tags them as a counter-pressing, high-intensity side, and their PPDA of 8.06 compares with 10.87 for Brentford. They average 57.2% possession and 16.1 shots per match while allowing 11.2.

Brentford won't try to play through it. They average 46.1% possession, and xG Stat tags them as direct and wide, with 16.7 crosses per match, more than Brighton's 15.4.

That puts the game on second balls and crosses into the box. Sangaré's recovery numbers matter here, and so does Brighton's centre-back pairing. Lewis Dunk has won 61.9% of his aerial duels to go with Vušković's 74.6%.

My view: Brentford will go long and wide early. It's the right plan against this press, but it runs into the strongest part of Brighton's team.

Where will Brighton's goals come from?

Brighton have scored 24 goals from 18.56 xG, 16 of them from open play against 12.2 xG. That's the best attack in the league, but it's also running well ahead of its chances.

Groß and De Cuyper supply most of it, with seven assists between them. Brentford have conceded 0.56 goal involvements per match to centre-forwards, slightly above the league average, which gives Charalampos Kostoulas a route into the game.

Set pieces are the other route. 30% of Brighton's xG comes from dead balls, and they've scored four from 5.6 xG, so they've slightly underperformed there. Brentford have conceded one set-piece goal from 3.0 xG.

My view: Brighton should create more chances than Brentford, but expect their scoring rate to cool rather than repeat the 24 goals from nine games.

I expect Brighton to have most of the ball and most of the chances, with Groß and De Cuyper driving the attack and the press forcing Brentford long. With 2.06 xG per match, they should create enough to win.

The case against is their defending and their legs. Their xGA says they've been fortunate to concede only seven, Brentford create 1.78 xG per match, and Thursday's trip to Getafe arrives three days before kickoff.

Even so, Brighton have the better side, the better midfield and the better centre-backs for this game. My preference is Brighton to win, and the ATS Quantitative Model leans the same way. Compare that view with the current pricing and model projection on the Brighton vs Brentford matchup page.