3 Buccaneers vs Bears Player Props for Sunday Night Football (Week 9)
Updated November 6, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
Updated November 6, 2026
Note: The prices shown above are from Polymarket.us and may change based on trading activity leading up to kickoff.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) travel to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears (6-2) on Sunday Night Football, November 8. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET, with the game airing on NBC and Peacock.
Both teams are coming off impressive wins. Caleb Williams led Chicago to a 34-17 victory over the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks, while Tampa Bay shut out Atlanta 16-0 despite Baker Mayfield not completing a single pass.
With both teams looking to keep their winning streaks alive, I've picked out three NFL player props where I see value at the current Polymarket prices. Below, I'll explain what makes each prediction worth considering based on the stats, recent trends, and matchups.
Tough Matchup Against Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers rank second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed (80.0 per game), giving up just 3.6 yards per carry. They also rank fifth in opponent third-down conversion rate (32.0%), which could limit Chicago's opportunities to sustain drives and pile up rushing attempts.
Poor Recent Rushing Efficiency
Swift has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry over his last five games, including 2.9 over his last three. He needed 27 carries to reach 69 yards against Seattle last week, and he's finished under 59.5 rushing yards in four of eight games this season.
Lack of Explosive Runs
Swift's longest rush against Seattle was just seven yards, and he hasn't broken a run longer than 15 yards in four home games this season. Kyle Monangai's injury could mean another heavy workload, but Swift would still need 21 carries at his recent average of 2.9 yards per attempt to reach 60 yards.
Recommended Prediction:
Swift 60+ Rush Yds (No)
Current Market Price:
54¢
Model Under Probability:
59.6%
Market-Implied Probability:
54.0%
Model Edge:
+5.6%
Buy Up To:
58¢
Model Confidence:
74/100
NFL's Worst Passing Offense
Tampa Bay ranks last in the NFL in passing yards per game (131.4) and passing yards per play. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers lead the league in rushing offense (168.6 yards per game), averaging 5.07 yards per carry. They've had much more success running the ball than throwing it this season.
Limited Passing Volume Since His Return
Mayfield has attempted just 14 passes in two games since returning from a thumb injury. He threw for 64 yards on 11 attempts against Carolina before finishing with zero passing yards on three attempts against Atlanta last week. Those were unusual games, but Tampa Bay won both without needing much from its passing attack.
Chicago's Third-Down Defense
The Bears are allowing opponents to convert just 23.8% of their third downs, one of the lowest rates in the NFL. They've also recorded 22 sacks this season. If Chicago can get Mayfield off the field quickly, it could limit his passing opportunities, especially with Emeka Egbuka dealing with a foot injury.
Recommended Prediction:
Mayfield 200+ Pass Yds (No)
Current Market Price:
45¢
Model Under Probability:
50.1%
Market-Implied Probability:
45.0%
Model Edge:
+5.1%
Buy Up To:
49¢
Model Confidence:
72/100
Favorable Matchup Against Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers have allowed five receiving touchdowns to tight ends in eight games (0.62 per game), roughly 23% above the league average. Opposing tight ends are also averaging 5.4 receptions and 56.1 yards per game against Tampa Bay, accounting for 25.2% of all targets.
Red-Zone Involvement
Loveland has drawn 10 red-zone targets this season, including four inside the 10-yard line. That's tied with Luther Burden III for the team lead in targets inside the 10. Both of Loveland's receiving touchdowns have also come in the red zone, showing how Chicago has been using him near the goal line.
Growing Role in Chicago's Offense
Loveland has become one of Caleb Williams' favorite targets, catching at least six passes for 65 yards in three straight games. He caught seven of nine targets for 65 yards against Seattle last week and has played roughly 85% of Chicago's offensive snaps. With Tampa Bay allowing just 80 rushing yards per game, the Bears could look to Loveland more often near the goal line.
Recommended Prediction:
Loveland Anytime TD (Yes)
Current Market Price:
37¢
Model TD Probability:
41.5%
Market-Implied Probability:
37.0%
Model Edge:
+4.5%
Buy Up To:
40¢
Model Confidence:
68/100
The Bears enter Sunday night as clear favorites on Polymarket, priced at 72¢ to win outright (~72% implied probability). Chicago -6.5 is trading at 49¢, while the game total is set at 48.5 points, with the under priced at 53¢.
Our Buccaneers vs Bears prediction model likes the under, projecting a 24-20 Chicago win. That would also give Tampa Bay the cover as a 6.5-point underdog.
Sunday night's game should be more competitive for Tampa Bay than last week's rainy matchup against Atlanta, but points could still be at a premium. The Buccaneers rank fifth in scoring defense (18.9 points allowed per game), while the Bears aren't far behind in eighth (20.0).
So, what does that mean for our three player props? A lower-scoring game would line up pretty well with our unders for D'Andre Swift and Baker Mayfield. Tampa Bay's run defense could make things difficult for Swift, while a closer game would make it less likely that Mayfield needs to throw 35 or 40 times to keep up.
The under isn't quite as encouraging for our Colston Loveland anytime touchdown pick, but Chicago is still averaging 26.8 points per game under Ben Johnson. Even if the Bears don't put up a huge number, there should still be opportunities for Loveland to find the end zone.
