COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Northern Illinois enters with a 9-21 overall record from last season, but the statistical profile still suggests a team that can control a game through defense and rebounding. The Huskies posted 69.5 points per game, 56.8 points allowed per game, a 41.6% field goal rate, and a 114.4 defensive rating. That combination often plays well at home against mid-major opponents that can go cold for stretches. Grambling State finished 14-19 overall and was especially vulnerable on the road at 4-13. The Tigers scored 70.3 points per game, shot 43.0% from the field, and posted a 103.4 offensive rating with a 103.1 defensive rating. Those numbers show a capable offense, but the road record and lower rebound rate make it harder to trust them to keep pace if Northern Illinois gets the better of the possession battle.
Northern Illinois looks like the side with the cleaner path to a cover, backed by a stronger defensive profile, better rebounding, and the advantage of playing at home against a Grambling team that has struggled away from home. The Huskies should be able to dictate enough of the game to pull away late, and the projected final score is Northern Illinois 75, Grambling State 67.