COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Idaho enters with the better raw offensive production and a much stronger defensive scoring profile. Its 90.7 points per game, 49.0 percent shooting, and 62.3 percent free-throw mark stand out against Cal Poly’s lower scoring output and weaker shooting efficiency. The Vandals also rebound at a slightly higher rate, which should help them create extra chances and limit second-shot opportunities for the visitors. Cal Poly still has a respectable perimeter attack, hitting 38.9 percent from three, and its adjusted offense is a bit better than Idaho’s. But the Mustangs have allowed 83.0 points per game, which is a problem against a home team that can score in bunches. With both teams showing shaky defensive ratings, the side with the better blend of scoring and home stability is Idaho.
Idaho should be in position to win at home behind the better scoring profile, better free-throw accuracy, and a more reliable defensive baseline than Cal Poly has shown so far. The Mustangs can stretch the floor, but their high points allowed per game makes them harder to trust away from home. Look for Idaho to control enough of the possession battle to pull away late and secure an 82-77 win.
