Ball State Cardinals vs SMU Mustangs Prediction - November 13, 2026

Matchup Overview

SMU has opened the season with strong offensive execution, averaging 92.7 points while shooting efficiently from the field and beyond the arc. The Mustangs’ early results line up with their top-70 KenPom ranking and positive net rating, and the roster has already shown it can produce high-end scoring without needing a slow tempo to win games. Ball State has been more modest through three games at 70.0 points per game, with lower shooting percentages and a much less efficient offense overall. The Cardinals do rebound well at 41.0 per game, which can help them stay competitive on extra possessions, but their offensive rating and defensive rating both trail SMU by a meaningful margin. That makes this a matchup where Ball State likely needs SMU to underperform rather than simply playing its own game well.

Market Trends

• ●SMU has performed well in comparable spread settings with a 50.3% ATS mark in TeamRankings historical samples.
• ●Ball State trend data from the provided source set is not available here.

Prediction Summary

SMU is the clear side in this matchup, with stronger efficiency, better shooting, and a more complete two-way profile than Ball State. The projected final score is SMU 85, Ball State 68, which supports a home moneyline position and a game script where the Mustangs control the outcome from start to finish.