COLLEGE BASKETBALL
New Mexico’s early form is strong, led by 100.0 points per game, 58.3% shooting from the field, and 44.0% from three. That kind of offensive efficiency paired with 60.0 points allowed per game points to a team that can control both ends. The Lobos also show a healthy rebound edge, which should help limit second-chance chances for the visitors. Arkansas-Little Rock’s first-game sample is much less impressive. The Trojans are at 72.0 points per game, 42.4% from the field, and 31.2% from three, while giving up 82.0 points per game. Their KenPom-style numbers also trail New Mexico by a wide margin in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which supports a game script where the home team separates by the second half.
New Mexico is the stronger side in every major efficiency area and should control this matchup from the opening stretch. The Lobos’ superior shooting, scoring, and defensive numbers make the home moneyline the best position, and the projected final score is New Mexico Lobos 84, Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 63.
