CFL
Montreal enters with the CFL’s top record in this game and a strong home profile at 5-0, making the Alouettes the clear form side. They have produced 321 points in nine games, an average that points to steady offensive output, while their defense has limited opponents to 247 points. Ottawa’s season has gone the other way, with an 0-9 record, just 207 points scored, and 322 allowed. That gap in point production and prevention is the main reason the line sits so far toward Montreal. From a betting lens, Montreal’s 6-1 over record and 5-2 ATS mark show that the market has often underestimated its scoring and overall control of games. Ottawa’s 3-3 over record and 3-3 ATS mark suggest a more volatile profile, but the Redblacks’ road record of 0-4 and their 0-3 division mark make it hard to trust them in a difficult spot away from home. Montreal’s home dominance and Ottawa’s inability to generate enough points are the biggest positives and negatives shaping this matchup.
Montreal should control this game from the opening quarters and has the cleaner path to a cover and a lower-scoring finish than the total suggests. The Alouettes’ 8-1 record, 5-0 home mark, and plus-74 point differential line up well against an Ottawa team that is still searching for its first win and has been outscored by 115 points. I project Montreal to win 39-17, which supports Montreal -13.5 and the under 62.5.
