Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles New Orleans Bowl Picks - 12/23/2025
Updated December 22, 2025
Updated December 22, 2025
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Southern Miss Golden Eagles will square off in the 2025 New Orleans Bowl on Tuesday. Western Kentucky enters with an 8-4 record, while Southern Miss finished the regular season at 7-5. Both teams ended the regular season on losing streaks and will try to bounce back in their final action of 2025. Before kickoff from the Crescent City, you will find my Western Kentucky vs Southern Miss prediction right here.
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Western Kentucky arrives in New Orleans following an 8-4 season that featured a productive offense averaging 405 yards per game, with a strong passing attack driving much of that production. But the quarterback situation for Western Kentucky has been a problem toward the end of the season, with the Hilltoppers dropping two straight games heading into this bowl game.
Southern Miss finished 7-5 this season despite losing three straight games heading into the New Orleans Bowl. The Golden Eagles can certainly hold their own on offense, averaging 29.8 points per game. They will try to get their offense back up and running after failing to reach 20 points in two of their final three regular-season games.
This New Orleans Bowl is the first meeting between these former Conference USA rivals since 2020, with Western Kentucky holding the all-time series advantage. Both teams have maintained most of their rosters into bowl season, but Southern Miss underwent a coaching change, with Charles Huff leading for Memphis. It will be interesting to see how that impacts this game, if it does at all.
Western Kentucky’s offense was led by Maverick McIvor for a good chunk of the season. But injuries contributed to him relinquishing the starting quarterback job to Rodney Tisdale Jr. Tisdale has been inconsistent at quarterback for the Hilltoppers and I'm anxious to see how he performs in his first taste of bowl action.
Southern Miss has relied on Braylon Braxton at quarterback, who has thrown for close to 2,800 yards and 23 touchdowns. Braxton’s production is a major reason the Golden Eagles have remained competitive, but he has thrown an interception in three straight games and will need to clean that up for his team to succeed here.
Score Projection: Western Kentucky 24 – Southern Miss 27
Win Probability: Western Kentucky 50%, Southern Miss 50%
It's hard to feel confident in either of these teams given how they ended their regular seasons. The coaching upheaval at Southern Miss is a concern, but the quarterback play for Western Kentucky is also a question mark. I'm going to take Southern Miss to win this game on the moneyline, but I also understand those who want no part of betting this one.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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