With the Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1) heading to Morgantown to face the West Virginia Mountaineers (4-7) this Saturday, the stakes could not be higher for the Red Raiders. A win locks up a slot in the Big 12 Championship Game and more than likely a berth in the College Football Playoff. West Virginia is simply trying to end its season on a high note at home. Before kickoff in the Big 12, continue reading to get my Texas Tech vs West Virginia prediction.
Our Texas Tech vs West Virginia Pick
- Pick: Texas Tech -23.5
- Confidence: ★★★☆☆
4.8/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs West Virginia Mountaineers
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 29, 2025, 12:00 PM Eastern
- Venue: Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- Playoff door hinges on this game: Texas Tech is on the cusp of its first Big 12 title game appearance and a potential playoff berth. Their motivation is as high as can be going into this game and they will need to avoid slipping up here to make sure that they get the best postseason seeding possible.
- West Virginia’s farewell at home: Playing Senior Day at home gives WVU a sentimental motivation going into this game. But their 4-7 record and defensive struggles raise serious questions about whether that emotion can translate into results in this contest.
- Defensive dominance vs. offensive inconsistency: Tech’s defense ranks near the top of the Big 12, allowing just 12.3 points per game. West Virginia’s offense averages only 23.7 points and has had difficulty generating consistent production. The Red Raiders will need to avoid a letdown on defense to keep their incredible season going.
- Can West Virginia surprise? Despite their poor record, WVU has won two of their last three games. An upset here is certainly not impossible, even if the odds are stacked against the Mountaineers.
Quarterback Play
Texas Tech turns to Behren Morton at quarterback, who is expected to play despite dealing with a lower-leg issu. He’s thrown for 2,118 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just 4 interceptions this season. His efficiency helps keep Tech balanced and lethal through the air. West Virginia’s signal-caller has been Scotty Fox Jr. late in the season. The passing game has not been a strength for WVU whatsoever and they will try to change that against the Red Raiders.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Texas Tech is 10-1 straight up and against the spread this season.
- West Virginia is 7-4 against the spread going into this contest.
- The under has hit in 6 of the first 11 games for both of these teams.
- Historically in this series, Tech has had the upper hand. That includes a commanding 52–15 win last season.
Texas Tech vs West Virginia Model Projection
- Score Projection: Texas Tech 41 – West Virginia 14
- Win Probability: Texas Tech 92%, West Virginia 8%
Final Thoughts
Texas Tech enters this game with far more on the line and they should take care of business here to lock up a spot in the Big 12 title game. I'm going to lay the points with the Red Raiders against a Mountaineers team that has struggled to hurt teams through the air consistently.
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