Memphis vs. Tulane Prediction & Preview: Tigers Out for Revenge on Friday Night
Updated October 15, 2026
Updated October 15, 2026
Memphis travels to New Orleans to face Tulane in a Friday night American Conference matchup. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Yulman Stadium, with the game airing on ESPN.
The Tigers (5-1, 2-0 AAC) enter on a three-game winning streak and will be out for revenge after last year's 38-32 home loss to Tulane helped derail their conference championship and College Football Playoff hopes.
Tulane (2-3, 0-1 AAC), meanwhile, is hoping to get back on track after a slow start to the season under new head coach Will Hall.
Despite Memphis' impressive start and added motivation, I'm backing the Green Wave +7.5 on Friday night. Below, I'll explain why I like Tulane and where I see value on Polymarket right now.
Memphis' Vulnerability Against the Run
Memphis ranks 94th nationally in defensive rushing success rate, 120th in rushing EPA, and 123rd in rushing explosiveness allowed. That's a favorable matchup for Tulane, which averages 4.7 yards per carry and has shown the ability to break off big runs.
Tulane's Big-Play Potential
Despite averaging just 18.4 points per game, Tulane ranks first nationally in overall offensive explosiveness and 14th in passing explosiveness, according to Punt & Rally. The Green Wave have struggled to sustain drives, but a few explosive plays could be enough to keep them within the number.
Home-Field Advantage
Tulane is 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road this season, averaging 26.0 points per game at Yulman Stadium compared with 18.4 overall. Returning to New Orleans for a Friday night conference matchup could give the Green Wave a boost against a Memphis team playing its second road game in three weeks.
Recommended Position:
Tulane +7.5
Current Price:
55¢
Model Probability:
59.6%
Market Probability:
55.0%
Model Edge:
+4.6%
Buy Up To:
58¢
Model Confidence:
72/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“Tulane isn't the same team that made the College Football Playoff last season after losing head coach Jon Sumrall to Florida, but Memphis is adjusting to a new coach, too. I'm not completely sold on the Tigers' 5-1 record given their weak strength of schedule (101st in ESPN FPI) and some turnover luck. Tulane has enough big-play potential to keep things close, and I expect the Green Wave to come out motivated at home after last week's narrow loss to Army. Getting 7.5 points makes them worth backing.”
Memphis (5-1, 2-0 AAC) has emerged as one of the favorites to win the American Conference, with Kalshi currently giving the Tigers a 36% chance of winning the title. They've won three straight games, including blowout victories over Charlotte (59-8) and UAB (38-13), with their only loss coming on the road against Boise State.
Tulane (2-3, 0-1 AAC), meanwhile, has struggled to find consistency under Will Hall, with Kalshi giving the Green Wave just a 2% chance of winning the conference. However, two of their three losses came on the road against Power Four opponents Duke (17-3) and Kansas State (31-20), while their latest defeat was a narrow 20-17 loss at Army on a last-second field goal.
A big reason for Memphis' 5-1 start has been its offense, which is averaging 516.7 yards and 38.5 points per game. Quarterback Marcus Stokes has completed 70.1% of his passes for 1,535 yards, 16 touchdowns, and just three interceptions.
Running back Jaylin Carter has been just as impressive, rushing for 645 yards and eight touchdowns on 89 carries (7.2 YPC). He added 132 yards and two scores against UAB last week, while tight end Hunter Tipton leads the Tigers in receiving with 367 yards and five touchdowns.
Overall, Memphis ranks seventh nationally in rushing offense and fourth in passing efficiency, showing just how balanced its attack has been this season.
On the other side, Tulane has struggled offensively, averaging just 18.4 points per game. Quarterback Kadin Semonza, a Ball State transfer, has completed 53.8% of his passes for 804 yards, four touchdowns, and two interceptions.
The Green Wave have been more dangerous on the ground, led by Louisville transfer Maurice Turner, who's rushed for 277 yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries (10.7 YPC), including 200 yards against Southern Miss. Turner missed last week's Army game with a hamstring injury, but head coach Will Hall expects him back Friday.
Former Florida State running back Jaylin Lucas has added 243 yards on 29 carries (8.4 YPC), while wide receiver Destyn Hill leads the team with 17 catches for 223 yards and a touchdown.
One major concern for Tulane is its run defense, which ranks 133rd nationally with 218.6 rushing yards allowed per game. The Green Wave surrendered 329 yards on the ground against Army last week, and stopping Jaylin Carter and Memphis' rushing attack won't be any easier.
Injuries along the defensive line could make matters worse. Nose tackle Kam Hamilton, who leads Tulane's defensive linemen with 17 tackles, is unlikely to play because of a foot injury, although starting defensive tackle Ed Smith (14 tackles) is expected to return after missing the Army game.
Tulane has also struggled to get off the field, ranking 134th out of 138 FBS teams in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert 49.4% of their attempts. That's another area the Green Wave will need to improve against Memphis.
Friday's matchup also features an interesting connection between the two first-year head coaches. Charles Huff replaced Will Hall at Southern Miss after Hall was fired during the 2024 season, then turned a 1-11 program into a 7-5 bowl-eligible team in 2025 before leaving for Memphis.
Huff has carried that success into his first season with the Tigers, bringing 17 players from Southern Miss with him. Hall, meanwhile, is back at Tulane, where he previously served as offensive coordinator from 2019 to 2020.
Hall also spent the 2018 season as an assistant coach at Memphis, helping the Tigers reach the AAC Championship Game. Now he'll face his former school and the coach who succeeded him at Southern Miss.
The biggest question is whether Tulane can slow down Memphis' rushing attack. The Tigers average 247 rushing yards per game, while the Green Wave have struggled to stop the run and get off the field on third down. If Memphis controls the line of scrimmage, it could be a long night for Tulane's defense.
On the other side, Tulane has an opportunity to exploit a Memphis defense allowing 176.7 rushing yards per game. The Green Wave will need some explosive plays from their running backs, better quarterback play from Kadin Semonza, and ideally a takeaway or two to keep pace with the Tigers.
Ultimately, I'm expecting a close game, with Memphis winning 28-24. That makes Tulane +7.5 my pick, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Green Wave pulled off the outright upset.
For more on the total, check out our Memphis vs. Tulane model projection, which favors Under 55.5 points at 51¢ on Polymarket, with a projected total of just 51 points. You can also explore our latest college football predictions for more picks, previews, and analysis throughout Week 7 and beyond.
