The Vanderbilt Commodores (8–2) will host the Kentucky Wildcats (5–5) at FirstBank Stadium in Nashville on Saturday afternoon. The Commodores come into this game ranked 14th in the country and trying to hold onto their hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff. They will try to avoid an upset at the hands of a tough Kentucky team here. Before this contest kicks off in the SEC, continue reading to get my Vanderbilt vs Kentucky prediction.
Our Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Pick
- Pick: Kentucky +8.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Kentucky Wildcats @ Vanderbilt Commodores
- Date & Time: Saturday, November 22, 2025, at 3:30 PM ET
- Venue: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
One of the biggest storylines entering this game is motivation. Vanderbilt is 8–2 and very much in the mix for a strong bowl placement and a playoff berth. Kentucky sits at 5–5, teetering on the edge of bowl eligibility. For the Wildcats, this game could be a chance to punch their ticket to bowl season. For Vandy, this game is a great chance to move to within one win of a potential playoff spot.
Another concern for Kentucky is its secondary injuries. The Wildcats have reportedly lost DJ Waller for the remainder of the regular season, weakening their defensive backfield. Several other defensive backs are listed as questionable, which could expose them in big passing moments. Vanderbilt comes in relatively healthy, giving them an edge in depth and stability on defense.
Quarterback Play
At the heart of this contest are the two signal-callers. Diego Pavia leads Vanderbilt with 2,440 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions so far this season. He also contributes on the ground with over 600 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns, making him a dual-threat the Wildcats must account for.
Cutter Boley has guided Kentucky’s offense to 1,780 yards through the air with 13 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. While not as dynamic as Pavia, Boley’s leadership and experience will be key if Kentucky is to hang around in this contest.
Betting Trends
- Vanderbilt is 7-2-1 against the spread so far this season.
- Kentucky is 5-5 against the spread going into this matchup.
- Vandy has gone over the total in 6 of its 10 games so far this year.
- The over is 7-3 in Kentucky’s 10 games this season.
Kentucky vs Vanderbilt Model Projection
Score Projection: Vanderbilt 35 – Kentucky 28
Win Probability: Vanderbilt 78%, Kentucky 22%
Final Thoughts
Vanderbilt should be able to take care of business at home this weekend to keep their playoff hopes alive going into their final regular-season game against Tennessee. But I don’t think it’s going to be completely straightforward either. I am going to take the points with Kentucky, as this should end up being a one-possession game when all is said and done.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
