Iowa State vs BYU Prediction & Preview: Can BYU Stay Perfect Without LJ Martin?
Updated October 7, 2026
Updated October 7, 2026
The No. 8 BYU Cougars put their perfect record on the line Friday night when the Iowa State Cyclones come to Provo for a Big 12 matchup. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET at LaVell Edwards Stadium, where BYU will look to improve to 5-0.
The Cougars escaped TCU with a 17-10 win last weekend, but they'll be without star running back LJ Martin against an Iowa State team coming off its best offensive performance of the season. The Cyclones beat West Virginia 45-42 behind a huge game from Aiden Flora and now get a chance to knock off a top-10 team on the road.
For my Iowa State vs BYU prediction, I’m backing BYU -10.5 at home on Friday night. Below, I’ll break down the matchup and why I think the Cougars can pull away and cover.
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I’m backing BYU to cover the 10.5 points at home after a somewhat underwhelming performance at TCU last week. Even without LJ Martin, I still think the Cougars can move the ball against a suspect Iowa State defense that will also be without Caden Crawford and Ka’Mori Moore up front. BYU should make things difficult for the Cyclones offensively, and even with No. 3 Notre Dame coming up next in a potential look-ahead spot, I expect a more complete performance from the Cougars on Friday night.”
Polymarket Pricing
BYU -10.5 is currently trading at 49¢ on Polymarket, while our model gives the Cougars a 53.8% chance of covering the number. That gives us a 4.8% edge at the current price, with the ATS Quantitative Model projecting a 31-20 BYU win.
BYU Can Take Away Iowa State’s Biggest Strength
Iowa State has leaned heavily on the ground game, averaging 197.4 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry, with Aiden Flora coming off a 212-yard performance against West Virginia. BYU is a much tougher matchup, allowing just 75 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry. If the Cougars can contain Flora and force Jaylen Raynor to beat them through the air, that favors BYU.
Iowa State’s Offense Struggles to Sustain Drives
Iowa State ranks 108th nationally in three-and-out rate, with 29% of its possessions ending without a first down, and 114th in third/fourth-down conversion rate (35%) in non-garbage time. BYU ranks 17th in three-and-outs forced and 27th in conversion rate allowed, which could help the Cougars control possession and eventually create some separation.
Recommended Position:
BYU -10.5
Current Price:
49¢
Model Probability:
53.8%
Market Probability:
49.0%
Model Edge:
+4.8%
Buy Up To:
53¢
Model Confidence:
71/100
BYU will be without star running back LJ Martin after he suffered a lower-body injury early in last week's win over TCU. Martin has since been ruled out for Friday night, while No. 2 running back Sione Moa will also remain sidelined.
That's a big loss for the Cougars, as Martin has rushed for 344 yards and three touchdowns on just 44 carries this season, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt. Without him, Preston Rex, Journee Tonga and DeVaughn Eka should all see more work, while Bear Bachmeier can also make plays with his legs.
The matchup should at least help BYU here. Iowa State is allowing 149.2 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry, and the Cyclones are dealing with some injuries of their own up front. Caden Crawford and Ka'Mori Moore are out, while linebacker Rylan Barnes is questionable, so BYU should still have a chance to establish the run without Martin.
With LJ Martin out, BYU may need a little more from Bear Bachmeier on Friday night. The sophomore has completed 64% of his passes for 704 yards, six touchdowns and just one interception this season, while adding 130 yards and four more scores on the ground.
Bachmeier is coming off a quiet game through the air against TCU, completing just 11-of-24 passes for 62 yards, but he still found a way to make an impact with two rushing touchdowns. He'll now face an Iowa State defense allowing just 172 passing yards per game, so this won't necessarily be an easy matchup.
However, the Cyclones are coming off their worst defensive performance of the season, allowing 518 total yards and 42 points against West Virginia. With Bachmeier's ability to make plays through the air and on the ground, Iowa State will need a much better performance to slow down this BYU offense.
If Iowa State is going to keep this close, Aiden Flora needs to make a few big plays. Through five games, he has rushed for 594 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 8.1 yards per carry, which ranks third nationally and leads the Big 12. He also has 17 runs of 10+ yards this season.
Flora is coming off his best game of the year, rushing for 212 yards and three touchdowns against West Virginia while also throwing two touchdown passes. His ability to break off explosive runs has made him the biggest threat in this Iowa State offense.
He'll face a much tougher matchup Friday, though. BYU is allowing just 75 rushing yards per game and 2.7 yards per carry, both among the best marks in the country. If the Cyclones are going to consistently move the ball against this defense, Flora will be a big part of it.
It's certainly possible. Iowa State has looked solid in its first season under head coach Jimmy Rogers, and BYU has a potential look-ahead spot with a likely top-10 showdown against Notre Dame coming up next week. The Cougars will also be without LJ Martin, so this isn't necessarily the easiest spot to lay double digits.
That said, I still trust BYU to create some separation at home. The Cougars have been the more efficient team on both sides of the ball, and there's also a big difference in the red zone. BYU has turned all 13 of its non-garbage-time red-zone trips into touchdowns, while Iowa State ranks 112th nationally in red-zone touchdown rate allowed.
That could be especially important laying 10.5, where BYU needs touchdowns rather than field goals to pull away. Our ATS Quantitative Model for Iowa State vs BYU projects a 31-20 Cougars win, which is enough for me to back the Cougars at home on Friday night.
For more Week 6 game previews and model-backed analysis, check out our latest college football predictions.
