Delaware vs Middle Tennessee Prediction, Preview & Market Analysis - 10/13/2026
Updated October 13, 2026
Updated October 13, 2026
The Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens travel to Murfreesboro to face the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders on Tuesday night. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, with the game airing on CBS Sports Network.
Both teams enter at 2-3 overall and 0-1 in Conference USA play, looking to snap two-game losing streaks and pick up their first conference win. Delaware is also dealing with uncertainty at quarterback, with starter Nick Minicucci's availability still in question due to a knee injury.
With both offenses struggling to consistently score, I think the better value may be on the total rather than a side. My Delaware vs Middle Tennessee prediction is Under 47.5 points. Below, I'll break down the key matchups and numbers behind that prediction.
Polymarket Pricing
Under 47.5 is currently trading at 50¢ on Polymarket, while our model gives it a 55.0% chance of hitting. That gives us a 5.0% edge at the current price, with the model projecting a 24-20 Delaware win (44 total points).
Offensive Struggles and Under Trends
Both offenses rank well outside the top 100 nationally in scoring, and Delaware's uncertainty at quarterback only adds to the concerns about offensive production. The trends also favor a lower-scoring game, with both teams 4-1 to the Under through five games. Middle Tennessee's two home games this season have also finished Under the total.
Recommended Position:
Under 47.5 Total Points
Current Price:
50¢
Model Probability:
55.0%
Market Probability:
50.0%
Model Edge:
+5.0%
Buy Up To:
54¢
Model Confidence:
74/100
Why Our Model Sees Value:
“I'm taking Under 47.5 points in this Tuesday night Conference USA matchup. Neither defense has been particularly impressive, but Delaware's offense could struggle if quarterback Nick Minicucci is out or limited by his knee injury. And while Middle Tennessee has been especially vulnerable against the run, Delaware is averaging just 98.8 rushing yards per game, making it difficult to see the Blue Hens fully exploiting that weakness.”
Both Delaware and Middle Tennessee enter Tuesday's matchup at 2-3 overall and 0-1 in Conference USA play, with each team looking to avoid a third straight loss. With Liberty and Jacksonville State already off to 2-0 conference starts, both teams are playing catch-up in the Conference USA championship race.
Delaware opened the season 2-1 but has since dropped back-to-back games against Virginia and Liberty, getting outscored 72-17 in those losses. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has struggled just as much, scoring only 13 combined points in consecutive losses to Jacksonville State and Kansas.
Historically, Delaware has had the upper hand in this matchup, winning all three previous meetings, including a 31-28 victory last season.
Delaware's biggest question heading into Tuesday night is the status of starting quarterback Nick Minicucci, who suffered a knee injury against Virginia on September 26 and missed the following game against Liberty. Head coach Ryan Carty has described him as "week-to-week," leaving his availability against Middle Tennessee in question.
Before the injury, Minicucci had completed 57.3% of his passes for 838 yards, five touchdowns, and three interceptions across four appearances. In his absence, Delaware started E.J. Archield Jr. against Liberty, who completed 10 of 19 passes for 137 yards, while Braden Streeter and Tyler Bell also saw action.
Running back Antonio Martin Jr. has been one of the few bright spots for Middle Tennessee's offense this season, rushing for 385 yards and one touchdown on 72 carries (5.3 yards per carry).
He ranks third in Conference USA with 77.0 rushing yards per game and has already topped 100 yards three times, including a 106-yard performance against Jacksonville State a little over two weeks ago.
The matchup isn't particularly favorable, though, as Delaware is allowing just 136.8 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. Still, the Blue Hens have allowed eight rushing touchdowns through five games, giving Martin an opportunity to make an impact near the goal line.
Middle Tennessee has struggled defensively this season, allowing 420.6 total yards per game and 6.6 yards per play.
The run defense has been especially concerning, giving up 225.0 rushing yards per game. The Blue Raiders also allowed 517 total yards against Jacksonville State before surrendering 706 yards, including 480 on the ground, in their most recent 55-0 loss to Kansas.
If Middle Tennessee wants to pick up its first Conference USA win, it'll need more from players like linebacker Korey Smith, who leads the team with 46 tackles, and cornerback Jackson Lowe, who has recorded 26 tackles, two tackles for loss, and two pass breakups over his last three games.
One matchup I'll be watching is Middle Tennessee's offensive line against Delaware's pass rush. The Blue Hens have recorded 16 sacks through five games (11th nationally), led by Blake Matthews with 4.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss.
If Delaware can pressure Middle Tennessee quarterback Roman Gagliano, who completed just 9 of 26 passes against Kansas, it could be another difficult night for the Blue Raiders' offense.
Third downs and turnovers could also be important. Both offenses are converting fewer than 28% of their third-down attempts, while Middle Tennessee enters with a +5 turnover margin. With both teams struggling to sustain drives, one turnover or short field could make the difference.
I lean toward Delaware getting the win, with the Blue Hens currently trading at 53¢ on Polymarket. I think they can move the ball against Middle Tennessee's defense even with a backup quarterback, and I don't love the Blue Raiders coming off a physical game against a Power Four opponent.
Still, my favorite play is Under 47.5 points. Check out our Delaware vs Middle Tennessee model projection for a closer look at the numbers behind our pick, along with our other college football picks and predictions for more Week 7 matchups.
