The Big East Tournament continues Thursday with a quarterfinal game between Xavier and UConn at Madison Square Garden. UConn enters the game as one of the conference’s elite teams after finishing near the top of the standings with a 17-3 league record and a deep roster that has produced consistent scoring and defense all season. Xavier arrives after a turbulent campaign but still carries dangerous offensive talent capable of creating problems in a tournament setting. The Musketeers showed that potential recently with an 89-87 win over Marquette to advance in the tournament and set up this Xavier vs UConn contest.
Our Xavier vs UConn Pick
Pick:
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Xavier Musketeers vs UConn Huskies
- Date & Time: Thursday, March 12, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York
- Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
UConn enters the tournament with one of the most balanced rosters in the conference. The Huskies finished the regular season with multiple All-Big East selections and have been especially strong defensively, allowing roughly 65 points per game. Their ability to control the glass and generate efficient looks on offense has been a defining trait all season.
Xavier, on the other hand, has relied heavily on offensive production from its top scoring options. The Musketeers average close to 78 points per game but surrender slightly more than that defensively, creating high-scoring games. Their ability to keep pace offensively will be key if they hope to stay competitive against a UConn squad that dominated the earlier meeting between these teams.
Key Players
UConn
- Solo Ball – The Huskies’ leading scorer at 13.9 points per game and a major perimeter threat. Ball also shoots about 84% from the free-throw line and has hit more than 60 three-pointers this season, giving UConn reliable spacing.
- Tarris Reed Jr. – A dominant interior presence averaging 13.8 points and 8.0 rebounds per game while shooting an efficient 63.8% from the field. Reed anchors the Huskies’ rebounding advantage and rim protection.
- Alex Karaban – A versatile forward contributing 12.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and solid three-point shooting around 40%. Karaban’s experience and ability to stretch the floor make him a key piece of the offense.
Xavier
- Tre Carroll – The Musketeers’ primary scoring option, averaging about 18.0 points per game while shooting nearly 50% from the field. Carroll’s ability to create offense will be essential against UConn’s defense.
- Filip Borovicanin – A versatile forward who averages around 10 points and leads the team in rebounds, with around 8 per game. His presence in the paint is critical for Xavier’s interior scoring and rebounding.
- Malik Moore – A capable scorer who has delivered big games during the season and provides secondary offense behind Carroll.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Xavier | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 78.4 | 78.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 80.3 | 65.3 |
| Team Field Goal % | 44% | 48% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 34.5 | 38.5 |
| Assists Per Game | 17.7 | 18.5 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Earlier this season, UConn defeated Xavier in decisive fashion twice. They beat the Musketeers 90-67 in Cincinnati in their first meeting and 92-60 at home the second time they played.
- UConn is just 11-20 against the spread so far this season.
- Xavier enters this game at 16-16 against the spread for the year.
Xavier vs UConn Model Projection
Score Projection:
Win Probability:
Final Thoughts
UConn has crushed Xavier on two occasions already this year. I think we are in for a similar result in this game, as the Musketeers have had a hard time competing with UConn on either end of the floor during the 2025-26 campaign. I’ll lay the points with UConn here, as they should advance to the semifinals of this year’s Big East Tournament.
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