Updated March 12, 2026
Kansas City will be packed with Cougars on Thursday night as the BYU Cougars take on the Houston Cougars in the quarterfinals of the 2026 Big 12 Tournament. BYU has won two games in two nights to reach the quarters, while Houston will begin its postseason play after earning a double-bye. Houston is known for its elite defense, but that defense will be tested against soon-to-be NBA lottery pick AJ Dybantsa. Before this clash of the Cougars, continue reading for my BYU vs Houston prediction in the betting markets.
Pick: Houston -8.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Houston enters the Big 12 tournament as one of the most consistent teams in the nation. The Cougars finished near the top of the conference standings and have remained ranked inside the national top 10 for most of the season. Their defensive intensity has been the defining factor, allowing roughly 63 points per game while forcing frequent turnovers and limiting opponents to under 40% shooting.
BYU arrives with strong momentum after two impressive tournament wins. The Cougars opened with a 105-91 win over Kansas State and followed it with a dominant defensive showing against West Virginia. The team’s offense is among the most productive in the conference, averaging 85 points per game this season. That scoring power has been driven by one of the most talented freshmen in college basketball in AJ Dybantsa.
The biggest question entering the game is whether BYU can maintain its offensive rhythm against Houston’s elite defense. Houston already defeated BYU 77-66 earlier in the season, controlling the tempo and holding BYU below its typical scoring output.
Houston Cougars
BYU Cougars
Stat | BYU | Houston |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 85.0 | 77.6 |
Points allowed per game | 75.4 | 62.7 |
Team Field Goal % | 48% | 45% |
Rebounds per game | 38.7 | 36.5 |
Assists per game | 13.8 | 15.0 |
Score Projection: BYU 70 – Houston 80 ATS PRO
Win Probability: BYU 34%, Houston 66% ATS PRO
This quarterfinal contest is headlined by a fascinating contrast between BYU’s explosive offense and Houston’s defensive dominance. BYU clearly has the scoring ability to threaten any opponent, especially with AJ Dybantsa playing at a star level. But Houston's defense should make things tough either on Dybantsa or everyone around him, depending on how they choose to approach BYU defensively. I'll lay the points with Houston here against a BYU team playing for the third straight night.
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