Updated January 8, 2026
The matchup between the USC Trojans and the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Friday night could be one of the best games of the night in college basketball. Minnesota enters this game on a five-game winning streak, while USC is seeking to rebound from consecutive road setbacks in conference play. Minnesota enters this game as the favorite at home and you can find my USC vs Minnesota prediction below before tip-off.
Pick: | Minnesota -4.5 |
Confidence: | 3/5 |
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The Golden Gophers have been impressive in conference play, improving to 3-1 in Big Ten action and riding a five-game winning streak into this contest. Minnesota’s most recent victory was a dramatic 70-67 upset over a ranked Iowa team, with guard Langston Reynolds leading the way with 22 points on efficient shooting. The Gophers have a 9-0 home record this season at Williams Arena, which gives them a tangible edge in this matchup.
USC arrives in Minneapolis facing plenty of adversity. After a strong start to the season, the Trojans have dropped their last two road games by significant margins, including an 80-51 loss to Michigan State that highlighted defensive issues and scoring struggles away from home. USC’s conference record sits at 1-3, and key contributors such as Rodney Rice are sidelined, placing further pressure on Chad Baker-Mazara to step up. The Trojans are still capable offensively, averaging over 85 points per game, but recent defensive lapses and turnover concerns could be costly again here, as they try to avoid a third straight loss.
Score Projection: USC 71 – Minnesota 77
Win Probability: USC 40%, Minnesota 60%
I'm going with the Minnesota Golden Gophers to win and cover the spread on their home floor against USC on Friday. Minnesota is hitting its stride early in conference play and should be able to take advantage of the injuries and porous defense on display from the Trojans of late. Expect Minnesota to get a sixth straight win and for USC to take a third straight loss on the road to a conference opponent.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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