Updated January 8, 2026
Friday’s Mid-American Conference basketball showdown between the undefeated Miami (OH) RedHawks and Toledo Rockets should be an interesting one to open the Division I action for the night. Miami (OH) comes in with an immaculate 16-0 record overall and a perfect 4-0 mark in conference play, while Toledo looks to build on its 9-6 start and 3-0 start in MAC play. Before these teams do battle on the court, you will find my breakdown of this game, including my Miami (OH) vs Toledo prediction.
Pick: | Miami (OH) -1.5 |
Confidence: | 4/5 |
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Miami (OH) enters this game as one of the few remaining undefeated teams in college basketball. They have some of the nation’s most efficient offensive numbers, leading Division I in field goal percentage and near the top of the nation in three-point accuracy. The RedHawks average over 90 points per game and make more than 11 triples per contest, while Toledo has struggled at times against powerful scoring units.
Toledo has also been strong in MAC play, winning its first three league games while getting contributions from Kyler Vanderjagt, Sonny Wilson, Leroy Blyden Jr., and Sean Craig. The Rockets are 5-2 at home and have shot close to 50% from the field in recent games, but the RedHawks’ scoring depth and efficiency are significant hurdles for them to clear in this contest. Miami’s perfect record in games decided by double figures suggests they can maintain leads once they've been established, but a double-digit game is not expected here.
This game could end up being a preview of this season's MAC title game. In a league that is typically a one-bid league, getting the psychological edge over your biggest competition in a game like this one will be huge. We will find out who grabs that edge on Friday night.
Score Projection: Miami (OH) 83 – Toledo 78
Win Probability: Miami (OH) 53%, Toledo 47%
This might be the game I am most excited for on the college basketball schedule on Friday. I lean toward the RedHawks to win and cover the number on the road here, as they should be able to pick on a Toledo defense that ranks 254th out of 365 Division I teams in defensive rating according to KenPom.
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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