The Memphis Tigers head into Sunday’s home game against the UNLV Rebels as strong favorites. Memphis is 1-1 on the season and looking to bounce back from a loss to an SEC opponent, while UNLV has struggled early in the season at 1-2. Before tip-off from FedEx Forum in Memphis, you will find my UNLV vs Memphis prediction right here.
Our UNLV vs Memphis Pick
- Pick: Memphis –10.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: UNLV Rebels @ Memphis Tigers
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 16, 2025, 5:00 PM ET
- Venue: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- Memphis under pressure to respond: After an 83–77 loss at Ole Miss, Memphis will want to reassert itself at home. Curtis Givens III led the Tigers with 20 points in the loss to Ole Miss, while Ashton Hardaway made a strong impact off the bench. This game is a great opportunity for the Tigers to get back into the win column.
- UNLV’s high‑octane offense, soft defense: The Rebels are averaging over 90 points per game and shooting very efficiently. But they’ve given up a lot of points early in the year as well. They surrendered 102 points in their loss to Montana last time out and they are giving up an average of 85.7 points per game.
- Shot creation and pace: Both of these teams rank inside of the top 100 in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. We should see a game where both teams try to get up and down the floor and score quickly. But the key to this game will be using pace effectively without rushing into unforced errors offensively.
- Roster leadership: Dravyn Gibbs‑Lawhorn has been the go-to player for UNLV, averaging 19 points per game. Memphis has been more balanced, with nobody averaging 15 points per game early in the year for the Tigers.
Betting Trends
- UNLV is 1-2 against the spread so far this season.
- Memphis has covered the spread in each of their first two games.
- The Tigers are 1-1 in the over/under market going into this contest.
- All three of UNLV's games have gone over their totals.
UNLV vs Memphis Model Projection
- Score Projection: UNLV 74 – Memphis 86
- Win Probability: UNLV 16%, Memphis 84%
Final Thoughts
My best bet for this non-conference college basketball matchup is for the Memphis Tigers to win and cover the spread on their home floor in Memphis. UNLV's defense has been dreadful to start the season and I don't expect it to get any better against tougher competition in their first road game of the year. Memphis should light up the scoreboard here and get a nice win at home on Sunday.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
Affiliate Disclosure
ATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.
