The in-state rivalry between Miami and Florida will be renewed in college basketball on Sunday night. This game will be played in Jacksonville in the Jacksonville Hoops Showdown. The Gators are the defending national champions and they will try to get a third win in a row over a Miami team that has yet to be tested this season. Before tip-off from Jacksonville, I've broken this game down and you can find my Miami vs Florida prediction below.
Our Miami vs Florida Pick
- Pick: Miami +10.5
- Confidence: ★★☆☆☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Miami (FL) Hurricanes vs Florida Gators
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 16, 2025, 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena, Jacksonville, Florida
- Broadcast: ESPN
Key Storylines
- Rivalry rekindled: These two programs haven’t faced off in basketball since 2019. It’s been nearly six years since the Gators beat Miami 78–58 and Florida leads the all-time series 47–24.
- Florida’s size advantage: The Gators are crashing the boards hard. They average an impressive 53.7 rebounds per game, a major strength against a Miami squad that lacks the same size as the Gators.
- Miami’s offensive firepower: The Hurricanes are putting up nearly 96 PPG through three games, playing at an elevated pace. They are shooting 56.9% from the field and averaging 23.7 assists per game. But those numbers have come against weaker competition and the Hurricanes will try to prove their offense is legit here.
- Florida’s recent pedigree: The Gators are the defending national champions, and they know they’re the hunted now. They showed toughness in a 78–76 win over Florida State, dominating the boards 58–36.
- Coaching story: Miami’s head coach, Jai Lucas, made his name as a Gator in his playing days. This is a homecoming of sorts for him.
- Early-season form: Miami is 3–0, but the quality of competition (Jacksonville, Bethune–Cookman, Stetson) hasn’t pushed them hard. Florida is 2–1, with a close call against Florida State, a blowout win over North Florida, and a loss to Arizona.
Betting Trends
- Miami is 2-1 against the spread so far this season.
- Florida is 0-3 against the spread going into this matchup.
- All three games for Miami have gone over their totals.
- Two of Florida's first three games have gone under their respective totals.
Miami vs Florida Model Projection
- Score Projection: Florida 84 – Miami 77
- Win Probability: Florida 63%, Miami 37%
Final Thoughts
Florida should be able to win this game in Jacksonville against their in-state rivals. But I'm going to take the points with the Miami Hurricanes in this contest. Florida has yet to be dominant against power conference competition and that should remain the case here. While the Gators will control the glass, Miami's offense will do enough to keep this game inside of 10 points to cover the spread on Sunday night.
Jay Sanin
Jay Sanin is the GM and Head of Sports at ATS.io. He has been writing about sports gambling since 2013, handicapping tens of thousands of sporting events. He plays sides and totals aggressively across most sports and is more selective in player prop markets. He does his own modeling across most sports, and his family is jealous of how much time he spends on his precious spreadsheets.
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