Updated March 11, 2026
The Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals include a battle on Thursday night between UCF and Arizona in Kansas City. Arizona has been one of the top teams in college basketball throughout the season and enters postseason play with just two losses, while UCF has steadily built a competitive team in since joining the Big 12. The Wildcats feature one of the most efficient offenses in the country and a deep frontcourt, while the Knights rely on guard play and perimeter shooting to stay within striking distance. Here, we take a closer look at UCF vs Arizona and my prediction for that game can be found below.
Pick: UCF +16.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Arizona enters this game with one of the best resumes in the country and has spent long stretches ranked at the top of the national polls. The Wildcats combine a fast offense with strong interior scoring, allowing them to pull away from opponents late in games. Arizona averages well over 85 points per game and owns one of the best scoring margins in the nation.
UCF has been one of the more improved teams in the conference. The Knights rely heavily on their guard play and perimeter shooting while also ranking near the top of the Big 12 in three-point accuracy. They also enter this matchup with confidence after grinding out an overtime comeback win over Cincinnati in the opening round of the tournament.
The previous meeting between these teams showed the difference in depth. Arizona placed several players in double figures and controlled the paint. If the Wildcats again dominate inside, they should be able to control the game.
Arizona Wildcats
UCF Knights
Category | UCF | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 82.2 | 86.7 |
Points allowed per game | 78.4 | 68.6 |
Team Field Goal % | 47% | 50% |
Rebounds Per Game | 36.8 | 43.0 |
Assists Per Game | 16.1 | 17.4 |
Score Projection: Arizona 85 – UCF 76 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Arizona 77%, UCF 23% ATS PRO
UCF has shown that it can compete with Arizona, and the Knights have enough perimeter scoring to keep the game within reach for stretches. Arizona should be able to win this game by around 10 points, but that should mean a relatively comfortable cover for UCF when all is said and done.
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