Updated March 11, 2026
Auburn and Tennessee will square off Thursday in a high-stakes SEC Tournament second-round game at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Both programs have spent the season near the top of the conference standings and each features a distinct style that has produced strong results. Auburn brings one of the nation’s most productive offenses, while Tennessee relies on disciplined defense that consistently limits opponents to low-scoring totals. Auburn is still trying to bolster its NCAA Tournament here and I will break down their chances of doing so with my Auburn vs Tennessee prediction below.
Pick: Auburn +6.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
This game pits two teams against each other that have proven they can compete with the best in the SEC. Auburn has leaned on its offensive production throughout the season, averaging more than 83 points per game and ranking among the most efficient scoring teams in the country. The Tigers often push the tempo and rely heavily on their interior presence and rebounding advantage. They started their SEC Tournament with a first-round win over Mississippi State behind a strong second-half performance.
Tennessee approaches the contest from the opposite direction. The Volunteers allow just over 69 points per game, one of the best defensive marks in college basketball. They slow the pace, pressure ball handlers, and force opponents into difficult half-court possessions.
The first meeting between these teams this season showed how difficult Tennessee can be to score against. The Volunteers controlled large stretches of that contest and secured a 77-69 win. Auburn enters this game seeking a different outcome by emphasizing its rebounding edge and inside scoring.
Tennessee
Auburn
Stat | Auburn | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 83.5 | 80.1 |
Points allowed per game | 79.6 | 69.4 |
Team Field Goal % | 46% | 47% |
Rebounds per game | 36.1 | 42.6 |
Assists per game | 12.8 | 17.1 |
Score Projection: Auburn 76 – Tennessee 80 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Auburn 45%, Tennessee 55% ATS PRO
Tennessee does have the better roster and has enjoyed better results than Auburn this season. But I do think that Auburn is going to keep this game close, which is likely all they need to do in order to get into the NCAA Tournament despite being the 12th seed in this tournament. I'll take the points with Auburn, while Tennessee should advance to the next round in Nashville.
Affiliate DisclosureATS.io uses affiliate links. If you sign up through a link on this page, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. Rankings are based on hands-on testing and published criteria, and affiliate relationships do not determine placement.