Auburn and Tennessee will square off Thursday in a high-stakes SEC Tournament second-round game at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville. Both programs have spent the season near the top of the conference standings and each features a distinct style that has produced strong results. Auburn brings one of the nation’s most productive offenses, while Tennessee relies on disciplined defense that consistently limits opponents to low-scoring totals. Auburn is still trying to bolster its NCAA Tournament here and I will break down their chances of doing so with my Auburn vs Tennessee prediction below.
Our Auburn vs Tennessee Pick
Pick:
Confidence: 3 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Auburn Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers
- Date & Time: Thursday, March 12, 8:30 PM ET
- Venue: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, Tennessee
- Broadcast: SEC Network
Key Storylines
This game pits two teams against each other that have proven they can compete with the best in the SEC. Auburn has leaned on its offensive production throughout the season, averaging more than 83 points per game and ranking among the most efficient scoring teams in the country. The Tigers often push the tempo and rely heavily on their interior presence and rebounding advantage. They started their SEC Tournament with a first-round win over Mississippi State behind a strong second-half performance.
Tennessee approaches the contest from the opposite direction. The Volunteers allow just over 69 points per game, one of the best defensive marks in college basketball. They slow the pace, pressure ball handlers, and force opponents into difficult half-court possessions.
The first meeting between these teams this season showed how difficult Tennessee can be to score against. The Volunteers controlled large stretches of that contest and secured a 77-69 win. Auburn enters this game seeking a different outcome by emphasizing its rebounding edge and inside scoring.
Key Players
Tennessee
- Jakobi Gillespie leads Tennessee with about 18 points per game. He is the Volunteers’ primary scorer and perimeter threat, capable of swinging a game with his ability to get good looks for himself. He also leads Tennessee in assists, with over five per night.
- Nate Ament is the top rebounder for the Vols with 6.4 boards per game. For the Volunteers to be effective on defense, Ament will have to help them close out possessions with defensive rebounds.
Auburn
- Keyshawn Hall leads the Tigers in scoring with 20.4 points per game this season. He put forth a strong showing in the Tigers’ first-round win and they will need him to put up big numbers to advance past the Volunteers.
- Tahaad Pettiford has emerged as an explosive backcourt scorer who also leads the Tigers in assists with 3.6 per game this year.
Stat Comparison
| Stat | Auburn | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 83.5 | 80.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 79.6 | 69.4 |
| Team Field Goal % | 46% | 47% |
| Rebounds per game | 36.1 | 42.6 |
| Assists per game | 12.8 | 17.1 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- The teams met earlier this season, with Tennessee winning 77-69.
- Auburn holds an 14-18 record against the spread this season.
- Tennessee is 13-17-1 against the spread.
Auburn vs Tennessee Model Projection
Score Projection:
Win Probability:
Final Thoughts
Tennessee does have the better roster and has enjoyed better results than Auburn this season. But I do think that Auburn is going to keep this game close, which is likely all they need to do in order to get into the NCAA Tournament despite being the 12th seed in this tournament. I’ll take the points with Auburn, while Tennessee should advance to the next round in Nashville.
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