Updated March 10, 2026
The ACC Tournament continues Wednesday afternoon with an intriguing clash between SMU and Louisville at Spectrum Center in Charlotte. Both teams bring explosive offenses into this meeting, and their earlier contest this season produced plenty of points. SMU enters the game with a 20-12 record and is coming off an 86-69 victory against Syracuse in the tournament opener. Louisville, meanwhile, sits at 22-9 overall and has won two straight games going into this SMU vs Louisville contest.
Pick: SMU +6.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
One of the biggest storylines entering this game is revenge. SMU defeated Louisville 95-85 during the regular season, a game that highlighted the Mustangs’ ability to push the pace and generate scoring from several guards. Louisville struggled defensively that night and will look to tighten things up this time. But Louisville won the first meeting between these teams this season, and it will be interesting to see who wins the rubber match.
Another factor is current form. SMU has had an inconsistent stretch, dropping several games before beating Syracuse in the tournament opener. Louisville has been steadier, winning three straight games entering postseason play. Their perimeter shooting has been particularly strong as they hope to be peaking at the right time.
Louisville Cardinals
SMU Mustangs
Stat | SMU | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 85.0 | 85.9 |
Points allowed per game | 78.1 | 72.5 |
Team Field Goal % | 49% | 47% |
Rebounds Per Game | 37.6 | 38.7 |
Assists Per Game | 17.1 | 17.4 |
Score Projection: SMU 84 – Louisville 88 ATS PRO
Win Probability: SMU 38%, Louisville 62% ATS PRO
This game has the potential to be another entertaining, high-scoring contest. SMU’s backcourt scoring gives it the ability to stay competitive, especially if Miller and Pierre get hot early. I do project a win for Louisville here, but I'm expecting SMU to cover the number as an underdog, with the absence of Brown for Louisville preventing them from truly running away with this one.
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