Updated March 10, 2026
The Big 12 Tournament brings together two teams with identical conference records but very different profiles as the Cincinnati Bearcats face the UCF Knights on March 11. Cincinnati enters this game with an 18-14 overall record and a 9-9 mark in conference play, getting its 10th league win in the first round of the Big 12 tournament, while UCF stands at 20-10 with the same 9-9 league record. Both teams are squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, making this Cincinnati vs UCF matchup a huge one in college hoops.
Pick: Cincinnati -2.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 3 out of 5
This contest is a rematch of a thriller earlier in the season. UCF edged Cincinnati 73-72 in January on a late jumper. That result served as motivation for the Bearcats in their second meeting of the season, which Cincinnati won by 20 points at home, putting these taems at 1-1 against each other entering this tournament clash. Cincinnati has been trending upward offensively in recent weeks, including multiple games with more than 90 points. Their defensive structure remains the backbone of the program, allowing under 68 points per game.
UCF presents a very different challenge. The Knights average more than 82 points per game, one of the highest totals in the conference. However, their defense has been inconsistent, allowing nearly 79 points per game. That contrast sets up an interesting clash of styles between Cincinnati’s disciplined approach and UCF’s aggressive offensive pace.
UCF Knights
Cincinnati Bearcats
Stat | Cincinnati | UCF |
|---|---|---|
Points per game | 73.4 | 82.2 |
Points allowed per game | 67.6 | 78.8 |
Team Field Goal % | 43% | 47% |
Rebounds per game | 36.9 | 36.8 |
Assists per game | 16.7 | 16.1 |
Score Projection: Cincinnati 75 – UCF 71 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Cincinnati 56%, UCF 44% ATS PRO
Cincinnati has some momentum going into this second-round matchup in the Big 12 tournament. Both teams have proven themselves capable of winning against one another this year. But I lean toward the Bearcats being the team to get the job done in a tight game here. I will lay the 2.5 points with the Bearcats, as I make them about a four-point favorite.
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