Updated February 16, 2026
On Tuesday night, the unbeaten Miami (OH) RedHawks (25-0, 12-0 MAC) travel to face the UMass Minutemen (15-11, 6-7 MAC) in a battle that carries both conference positioning and potential NCAA Tournament implications. Miami enters this game as the nation’s last remaining undefeated team, as it aims to extend its perfect season. UMass looks to pull the upset against the top team in the conference and spoil Miami’s run at perfection. Before tip-off in the MAC, continue reading to get my Miami (OH) vs UMass prediction.
Pick: | Miami -2.5 ATS PRO |
Confidence: | 4 stars |
Miami enters this contest as the top team in the MAC and as the last unbeaten squad in Division I basketball, with a 25-0 record that includes impressive offensive outputs and close wins over quality conference opponents. The RedHawks rank among the nation’s top offenses in effective field goal percentage and three-point shooting, and they handle late-game situations with composure. In their first meeting with UMass on January 27, Miami narrowly escaped with an 86-84 victory in a tightly contested game, setting the tone for a competitive rematch this week.
UMass enters the second meeting against the RedHawks with confidence from that close loss, but sits below .500 in conference play and has struggled to put together consistent winning stretches, going 2-3 in their last five overall. With the home crowd behind them, the Minutemen will attempt to control the pace and use their balanced scoring attack to slow down Miami’s offensive efficiency.
Now that the RedHawks have won 25 straight games, there is a real debate to be had about whether or not they deserve an at-large bid in this year's NCAA Tournament. The RedHawks will be expected to win the MAC Tournament regardless, but if they are upset, there will be questions about their strength of schedule for the selection committee to answer. Miami (OH) will try to eliminate any doubts about its tournament credentials with another win in this game.
Score Projection: Miami (OH) 85 – UMass 78 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Miami (OH) 68%, UMass 32% ATS PRO
This rematch carries significant weight for both programs, particularly Miami, as it aims to maintain its unbeaten start amid the pressures of conference play and growing national attention. The RedHawks’ ability to score efficiently and execute in close games gives them the edge in a game that UMass will likely keep competitive for long stretches. I'm going to lay the points with the RedHawks here, as I expect them to move to 26-0 with a win here.