Updated February 16, 2026
The Louisville Cardinals and SMU Mustangs will meet in an ACC men's basketball matchup on Tuesday night in Dallas. Louisville enters this duel riding a five-game winning streak, while SMU aims to bounce back on its home floor in a matchup that is meaningful as both teams push for better conference tournament seeding late in Atlantic Coast Conference play. Before this matchup tips off in the Metroplex, continue reading to get my Louisville vs SMU prediction.
Pick: Louisville Cardinals -3.5 ATS PRO
Confidence: 4/5
Louisville has a five-game winning streak going into this matchup after an 82-71 victory against Baylor this past weekend. Freshman guard Mikel Brown Jr. has been exceptional, dominating with high scoring and playmaking that has elevated Louisville’s offensive consistency. His performance places Louisville firmly in control of key game outcomes in most games. Louisville is tied for sixth place in the ACC going into this game and a win would be huge for them as they look to move closer to the top four before ACC Tournament time.
SMU enters this contest with no injury issues reported, but inconsistent results have seen the Mustangs drop crucial road and home games, including a slip at home against Syracuse on Saturday. With averages near the top of the ACC in scoring offense and solid individual efforts from Boopie Miller and B.J. Edwards, SMU presents several scoring threats but must tighten up its defense and shot selection to contend with Louisville’s balanced attack.
Score Projection: Louisville 82 – SMU 78 ATS PRO
Win Probability: Louisville 64%, SMU 36% ATS PRO
Louisville’s recent offensive outbursts and sustained consistency give them a slight edge over SMU here. The Cardinals have over 80 points in four of the five games during their current winning streak, while SMU's defense has been vulnerable on a regular basis lately. I'm going to lay the points with the Cards here, as they should cover the spread as a road favorite to complete a season sweep over SMU while helping their chances of climbing in the ACC standings.