The 2026 Sun Belt Conference men’s basketball championship game pits the top‑seeded Troy Trojans against the 10-seed Georgia Southern Eagles on Monday at the Pensacola Bay Center. Troy advanced to the title game with a 78‑70 semifinal victory over Southern Miss, while Georgia Southern punched its ticket by knocking off 2-seed Marshall in an upset. Can the Eagles get their sixth win in six days to get to March Madness? Continue reading for my Georgia Southern vs Troy prediction in college basketball.
Our Georgia Southern vs Troy Pick
Pick:
Confidence: 4 out of 5
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Georgia Southern Eagles @ Troy Trojans
- Date & Time: Monday, March 9, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Pensacola Bay Center, Pensacola, Florida
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Key Storylines
- Troy enters as the regular‑season Sun Belt champion and top seed in the tournament, with a strong resume and recent semifinal win over Southern Miss after getting byes through the majority of the tournament.
- Georgia Southern caught fire in the bracket as a double‑digit seed, upsetting multiple opponents to reach the championship game.
- The winner earns an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, with Troy favored going into this game, though being an underdog hasn’t stopped Georgia Southern yet in this tourney.
- Fatigue could be a factor here, as Georgia Southern is playing for the sixth day in a row.
Key Players
Troy Trojans
- Victor Valdes: Leading scorer and floor general, averaging around 15 points and 4.5 assists per game this season, a crucial catalyst for Troy’s offense.
- Thomas Dowd: Team’s top rebounder with a double‑digit rebounding average, Dowd also contributes 14‑15 points per game and anchors Troy’s presence inside.
- Jerrell Bellamy: Provided 22 points in Troy’s semifinal win, showcasing the ability to take over big games for the Trojans.
- Cooper Campbell: Versatile contributor who adds scoring, playmaking, and defensive pressure with steals and assists as a multi‑faceted guard.
Georgia Southern Eagles
- Tyren Moore: One of Georgia Southern’s top scoring threats at 16.4 points per game, able to create offense in key moments.
- Alden Applewhite: Strong frontcourt presence who leads the team in rebounding and provides valuable interior scoring and board control.
- Spudd Webb: Defensive playmaker leading the team in steals, and contributes offense in spurts as a combo guard. Webb had a huge game for Georgia Southern in the semifinals against Marshall.
Stat Comparison
| Statistic | Troy | Georgia Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 80.5 | 81.5 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 73.5 | 79.8 |
| Field Goal Percentage | 45% | 44% |
| Rebounds Per Game | 38.4 | 34.3 |
| Assists Per Game | 16.1 | 11.3 |
Head‑to‑Head & Betting Trends
- Troy defeated Georgia Southern by five points on the road in their first meeting of the season.
- Troy is 16-14 against the spread going into the Sun Belt title game.
- Georgia Southern enters this contest with a 16-17 record against the spread for the year.
Troy vs Georgia Southern Model Projection
Score Projection:
Win Probability:
Final Thoughts
More College Basketball Picks
