The Phoenix Mercury and Los Angeles Sparks meet Wednesday night in a game that carries added importance for two clubs looking to build momentum before the All-Star break. The Sparks have already won both meetings this season, giving them an opportunity to improve to 3-0 against Phoenix this year. But the absence of Kelsey Plum will make this Mercury vs Sparks matchup a bit more challenging for the hosts in this early start from crypto.com Arena.
Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks Pick
- Pick: Los Angeles Sparks -1.5
- Confidence: 3 out of 5
Phoenix Mercury vs Los Angeles Sparks Model Projection
- Score Projection: Los Angeles Sparks 91 – Phoenix Mercury 87
- Win Probability: Los Angeles Sparks 56%, Phoenix Mercury 44%
Our expectation is for another competitive game that stays close into the fourth quarter. Los Angeles has already demonstrated an ability to generate efficient offense against Phoenix, averaging 104 points across the first two meetings, although that figure was boosted by an overtime period and the presence of Plum. Even after adjusting for those differences, the Sparks have consistently created quality looks in this series.
Phoenix has enough offensive talent to remain within striking distance throughout the evening, especially if its backcourt finds success from 3-point range early. Still, the Mercury have struggled to string together stops against Los Angeles, and the Sparks’ balanced scoring gives them multiple answers if one option cools off. A projected 4-point victory for LA supports laying the short number with the home team.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Los Angeles Sparks
- Date & Time: Wednesday, July 22, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
- Broadcast: WNBA League Pass
Mercury vs Sparks Same Game Parlay
- Sparks ML (-118)
- Nneka Ogwumike 18+ Points (-101)
- Dearica Hamby 8+ Rebounds (-108)
Total Parlay Odds: +525
For our Same Game Parlay for this contest, we’ll take the Sparks to win this contest outright instead of laying the 1.5 points, just in case the game is decided by a single point. On top of that, we’ll take the overs on Nneka Ogwumike’s points prop and Dearica Hamby’s rebounds prop, as both frontcourt players for the Sparks should benefit from facing an undersized group of forwards for the Mercury.
Stat Comparison
| Phoenix Mercury | LA Sparks | |
| Offensive Rating | 104.0 | 106.5 |
| Defensive Rating | 108.6 | 112.6 |
| Net Rating | -4.6 | -6.1 |
| Pace | 95.23 | 99.27 |
| Effective Field Goal % | 49.8 | 52.1 |
| Rebound % | 49.2 | 48.0 |
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
Past meetings this season
- June 13: Los Angeles 111, Phoenix 102 in overtime
- May 21: Los Angeles 97, Phoenix 88
ATS records this season
- Phoenix: 11-16
- Los Angeles: 11-14
Over/under records this season
- Phoenix: 13-14
- Los Angeles: 17-8
From a betting standpoint, the short spread is understandable. Home court, previous success in the series, and the Sparks’ ability to spread scoring across the lineup all point slightly in their favor. But Phoenix certainly has the talent to steal the game if it wins the turnover battle and gets hot from outside. Those outcomes have been less consistent throughout the season, but are by no means impossible.
A close game is the most likely outcome, yet Los Angeles has repeatedly found answers late against the Mercury this year. Expect another competitive contest before the Sparks gradually create enough separation during the final few minutes to secure a 91-87 victory and cover the spread.
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