The Connecticut Sun and Phoenix Mercury close out a home back-to-back set on Sunday at Mortgage Matchup Center, and this one carries more intrigue than the standings suggest. Both clubs sit in the bottom half of the league, but Connecticut has quietly won the last meeting between these teams, a 96-83 statement game on Friday behind Leila Lacan’s career night. Phoenix, meanwhile, arrives on a league-worst five-game skid and has to answer some real questions about its identity under coach Nate Tibbetts.
This is also an interesting matchup as it reunites a pair of stars with their former teams. Alyssa Thomas helped the Sun reach the WNBA Finals during her time in Connecticut and will face them as a member of the Mercury, while Brittney Griner played championship-level basketball for Phoenix, and will now go against them with the Sun.
Our Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prediction
- Pick: Connecticut Sun +3.5
- Confidence: 4 out of 5
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Model Projection
- Score Projection: Connecticut Sun 85, Phoenix Mercury 82
- Win Probability: Connecticut Sun 54%, Phoenix Mercury 46%
Connecticut has been the better team on the floor in this season series, and there is little reason to think that flips on short rest. The Sun have tightened up defensively over their last 10 outings, and Brittney Griner’s presence in the middle has given them a paint anchor they lacked previously. Phoenix still has more individual scoring firepower through Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas, but its supporting cast has been thin, and losing Natasha Mack for an extended stretch has hurt its rebounding and interior defense at exactly the wrong time.
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Connecticut Sun @ Phoenix Mercury
- Date & Time: Sunday, July 19, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix, Arizona
- Broadcast: ESPN
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Same Game Parlay
- Under 167.5 total points (-115)
- Kahleah Copper over 20.5 points (-129)
- Alyssa Thomas over 8.5 assists (+111)
Total parlay odds: +700 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Connecticut’s improved defense over its last 10 games and Phoenix’s cold shooting numbers on both ends support the under, while Copper remains Phoenix’s clear top scoring option regardless of the result. Thomas has run the Mercury offense as a facilitator all season, posting a team-high assist rate, and with Mack limited on the interior, expect Phoenix to lean on ball movement through Thomas even more than usual.
Connecticut Sun vs Phoenix Mercury Prop Bet
Leila Lacan over 14.5 points, +104 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Lacan just posted a career-high 26 points on 10-of-13 shooting in Friday’s win, and her role in Connecticut’s rotation has expanded steadily as the Sun have found more consistent lineups. And with Phoenix’s perimeter defense allowing opponents to shoot well above league average from the field, Lacan projects to stay involved as a scoring option rather than fade back into a smaller role.
Betting Trends & H2H
- Head-to-head this season: Connecticut leads 1-0, winning 96-83 in Phoenix on July 17.
- Connecticut is 14-11 against the spread this season.
- Phoenix is 10-16 against the spread going into this matchup.
Stat Comparison
| Category | Connecticut Sun | Phoenix Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive Rating | 100.0 | 104.4 |
| Defensive Rating | 107.3 | 109.7 |
| Net Rating | -7.3 | -5.2 |
| Pace | 95.95 | 95.31 |
| Effective FG% | 47.5% | 50.0% |
| Rebound% | 49.5% | 49.3% |
More WNBA Betting Resources
