Napoli’s Worst Start in 25 Years Put Allegri on the Clock, and the Betting Markets Still Aren’t Convinced
Updated September 16, 2026
Updated September 16, 2026
Napoli finally stopped the bleeding against Bologna, but one victory has done little to repair the damage inflicted by their worst opening to a season in a quarter of a century.
Three consecutive defeats against Como, Inter and Arsenal followed an opening win over Genoa, leaving Massimiliano Allegri with three losses from his first four competitive games. Napoli had not endured a start that poor since 2000-01, when they took only one point from their opening four matches before eventually being relegated from Serie A.
That historical comparison might sound dramatic after only a few weeks, but the pressure around Allegri was real. Reports in Italy described Aurelio De Laurentiis as increasingly dissatisfied, while former Fiorentina manager Raffaele Palladino was already being discussed as a possible replacement. Nothing suggested a change was imminent, but Napoli's ownership has hardly shown unlimited patience when a season begins to unravel.
Sunday's 1-0 win over Bologna therefore mattered for considerably more than three points. It bought Allegri time. The more interesting question for bettors is whether it changed anything else.
Stanislav Lobotka's goal gave Napoli their first victory since the opening weekend and ended a three-game losing run across Serie A and the Champions League. Allegri admitted afterwards that there had been "fear of not getting a result", an unusually revealing acknowledgement of how quickly the atmosphere had changed.
The betting markets had already reacted much more aggressively. DraftKings opened Napoli at +450 to win Serie A, a price carrying a raw implied probability of roughly 18%. After the defeat to Como, they had drifted to +1200. As of September 15, Napoli were out to +1600, putting their unadjusted implied probability below 6%.
Inter, by comparison, are now -125, with Roma at +450, Juventus +800, AC Milan +1000 and Como +1200. Napoli have gone from one of the primary Scudetto contenders to the sixth choice on the board in a matter of weeks.
The Champions League market paints an even harsher picture, with Napoli trading below 1¢ to win the competition on Polymarket. Perhaps more significant is the market on whether Napoli qualify for the 2027-28 Champions League, where the Yes price has been trading in the low-40¢ range. Liquidity is thinner and the market should be treated cautiously, but the change in expectations is difficult to miss.
Before the season, Napoli were being priced as potential champions. Now the market is questioning whether they finish in the top four.
Four matches are not enough to define an entire season, but Napoli cannot simply blame variance for their slow start. Through their opening four Serie A games, they have generated approximately 5.95 xG while conceding 6.44 xGA, leaving them with a negative expected-goal differential. Their expected-points total is also close to the six points they have actually collected.
When a strong team starts slowly despite dominating the underlying numbers, there is often a straightforward buy-low argument. Napoli have not yet created that situation.The defeat against Inter highlighted the defensive concern. Napoli created enough going forward to remain competitive, but they conceded too many dangerous situations and lost 3-2.
The Bologna match, however, was different. Napoli generated 2.25 xG while holding Bologna to 0.17 xG, producing their most controlled performance of the season. The 1-0 scoreline understated the gap between the teams rather than flattering Allegri’s side. That offers some evidence that the opening weeks may not represent Napoli’s true level, but it does not erase the concerns they raised.
Journalist Giovanni Scotto told Radio Radio that Aurelio De Laurentiis was unhappy with Napoli’s start, with former Fiorentina coach Raffaele Palladino subsequently linked as a possible alternative. However, La Gazzetta dello Sport later reported that De Laurentiis continued to back Allegri and had no immediate intention of reconsidering his position. That makes the situation more nuanced than a straightforward “win or be sacked” narrative.
Allegri was undoubtedly under pressure because of the results, the expectations surrounding Napoli and De Laurentiis’ history of making decisive coaching changes. There is much less evidence that his job was genuinely dependent on the Bologna result. The win nevertheless bought him something important: time.
This has now become the central question. DraftKings moving Napoli from approximately +450 to +1600 represents a huge adjustment after four league games. Polymarket has gone further, effectively pricing the Scudetto as a longshot outcome.
There are reasons for that pessimism. Napoli have a negative xG differential, their defense has looked vulnerable and three consecutive losses exposed problems that cannot be dismissed as finishing variance.
Bologna also showed why writing them off completely could be dangerous. Napoli controlled the match, generated the better chances and finally produced the kind of defensive performance expected from a team with ambitions near the top of Serie A. If that becomes the new baseline, +1600 will eventually look very different from how it does today.
For now, though, the market is demanding evidence. Allegri may have bought himself breathing room against Bologna, but Napoli still have to earn back the confidence they lost everywhere else.
